When the official data from the U.S. Department of Commerce collides with the world of blockchain, it often creates unexpected market waves — the Pyth Network (PYTH) recently staged a ‘comeback drama’. Since the U.S. Department of Commerce announced its collaboration with PYTH and Chainlink to anchor core economic data such as GDP and PCE to the blockchain network, the price of PYTH has skyrocketed as if the ‘rocket button’ was pressed, soaring 94% in just a few days, reaching a five-month high of $0.22, bringing the long-silent crypto data track back into the spotlight.
However, behind the excitement, PYTH's situation is fraught with contradictions: on one hand, the ‘official endorsement’ from the U.S. government adds a golden edge to the authority and compliance of its data services; on the other hand, after the market enthusiasm fades, its price has retreated to the $0.16-$0.17 range, and the technical indicators show faint bearish signals — the RSI index has fallen back to below 40 from a high position, and the MACD green bars continue to expand, with the short-term support level of $0.15 facing a test. More critically, the ‘$2 target’ mentioned by analysts faces a significant hurdle: supply dilution.
Looking back at the logic of PYTH's rise, this collaboration with the US Department of Commerce is by no means a 'symbolic platform'. It is known that GDP and PCE data are core references for the Federal Reserve in formulating monetary policy, and are also 'barometers' for global investors to judge the direction of the US economy. In the past, this data was only released through traditional channels such as government websites and financial media, which had risks of delay and tampering. However, PYTH, as a decentralized data oracle, can synchronize this official data to the blockchain in real-time and in an incorruptible manner, providing precise macroeconomic data support for DeFi protocols, quantitative trading strategies, and on-chain derivatives. This combination of 'official data + decentralized infrastructure' has shown the market the potential for PYTH to upgrade from 'crypto data tools' to 'global economic data infrastructure', and it's no wonder that once the news broke, funds would flood in.
In fact, as early as the end of August, PYTH had a 'highlight moment' – skyrocketing 130% from 0.1085 dollars to 0.2489 dollars, when market rumors suggested it was about to reach a data collaboration with a multinational payment giant. However, the good times didn't last long, as the collaboration details did not meet expectations and short-term profit-taking factors accumulated, leading to a rapid price drop. This rhythm of 'surge followed by correction' exposes the core issue of PYTH: market consensus still relies on 'event-driven' factors and lacks sustained fundamental support. Moreover, the risk of supply dilution casts a shadow over the long-term upward logic.
According to on-chain data, the circulating supply of PYTH has surged by 43% since the beginning of 2025, expanding from an initial 8 billion tokens to 11.44 billion tokens. Behind this is PYTH's token unlocking mechanism – shares reserved for the team, ecological incentives, and early investor unlocks are all concentrated in release this year, resulting in a large influx of new tokens into the market, directly diluting the rights of existing holders. Analysts estimate that if the current unlocking pace continues, by the end of 2025, the circulating supply of PYTH may exceed 15 billion tokens. Even if future demand grows, the rapid expansion of supply will offset the upward price momentum. 'It's like adding water to a continuously expanding pool; no matter how fast the water rises, the bottom of the pool is also widening continuously, making it difficult for the water level to rise quickly.' This is how a crypto analyst metaphorically explained.
But the market is never short of optimists. Some long-term investors believe that the collaboration with the US government is just the beginning of PYTH's 'breakthrough'. From the perspective of application scenarios, in addition to macroeconomic data, PYTH is also expanding data services for various categories such as commodities, stocks, and cryptocurrencies, and has currently integrated over 300 data sources, serving more than 100 DeFi projects, including leading protocols like Aave and dYdX. As the demand for traditional financial data from the blockchain surges, the value of PYTH's 'data entry' will gradually become prominent. More critically, if it can later cooperate with more official institutions and large enterprises from various countries, its data service's payment model may extend from 'within the crypto ecosystem' to 'outside traditional industries', bringing stable cash flow, which will become an important bargaining chip against supply dilution.
In terms of price predictions, analysts' views also present 'polarization': conservatives believe that due to supply dilution and short-term technical pressure, PYTH is likely to fluctuate in the range of 0.37-0.5 dollars in 2025, and to break through 2 dollars requires meeting two conditions – slowing the growth rate of circulating supply to below 10%, and actual revenue realization from official collaborations. On the other hand, the more aggressive analysts are optimistic about its long-term potential, believing that if it becomes a 'global blockchain data infrastructure', the price may hit 16.25 dollars by 2030. The reason is that similar to Chainlink (LINK), which once achieved a price increase from a few cents to dozens of dollars due to its leading position in the data oracle sector, if PYTH can establish barriers in official data collaborations, it may replicate this path.
Currently, PYTH is like standing at the crossroads of 'opportunity and risk': the endorsement from the US government gives it upward momentum, but supply dilution and short-term market sentiment are pulling it downward. For ordinary investors, rather than getting tangled up in whether it can reach 2 dollars, it is better to first clarify two core issues: one is whether there will be more official or enterprise-level partnerships realized, truly converting 'government endorsement' into actual demand; the second is whether the token unlocking pace will slow down, and whether the supply dilution pressure can be alleviated. After all, in the crypto market, 'stories' can support short-term increases, but 'fundamentals' are the anchor for long-term prices. Whether PYTH can break through the predicament may depend on whether it can truly stabilize its data service foundation under the halo of 'official certification'.
