#非农就业数据来袭 Non-Farm Payrolls Big Surprise

Tonight's U.S. non-farm data (actual 22,000, expected 75,000) is significantly lower than expected, and $ETH ETH's current technical indicators show short-term strength, with moving averages in a bullish configuration)

I. Data Impact Logic

1. **Non-farm far below expectations** → Signal of economic slowdown → **Fed rate cut expectations rise** → Dollar weakens → Risk assets (cryptocurrencies) benefit.

2. $ETH ETH has already risen +3.44% in the short term (quick reaction after data release), but the data may continue to support the price.

II. Technical Signal (ETHUSDT 15-minute chart)

-Moving Average System: MA5/10/20/30/60/120 are all in a bullish arrangement (MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > ...), short-term trend is strong.

-Bollinger Bands: Price is close to the upper band (4,445.40), indicating bullish momentum, but caution is needed for overbought pullbacks.

-Support Levels

Short-term: MA5 (4,432.8)

- Strong Support: Bollinger Band middle band (4,409.8) and MA60 (4,354.3)

- **Resistance Levels**: Previous highs (around 4,490) and psychological level 4,500.

III. Short-Term

- Cautious chasing of longs**: The favorable data has been partially realized, price is close to resistance, not advisable to chase high, wait for a pullback for buying opportunities.

- **Ideal long entry point is to buy after a pullback to 4,430-4,410 (MA5-MA20 area) stabilizes, target 4,480-4,500.

- Bears should avoid short selling in a favorable data environment, as the risk is very high.

2. **Medium-Term (Next 1-2 weeks)**

- If the Fed’s September meeting releases dovish signals, ETH is expected to break through 4,500 and move towards 4,600-4,800.

- Pay attention to the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the performance of U.S. stocks (especially Nasdaq).

IV. Risk Control Points

- **Strict Stop-loss**: Long stop-loss set below 4,400 (to prevent false breakouts).

-Pay attention to events: Subsequent speeches by Fed officials (like Powell), CPI data (September 10).

V. Summary

- **Data direction is clearly favorable**, technical indicators are simultaneously bullish, but in the short term, caution is needed for profit-taking.

- **The operation mainly focuses on low longs**, avoiding chasing rises, with emphasis on seizing entry opportunities after pullback support. #美联储降息预期 #加密市场回调