Non-farm data, known as the "king of data" in the financial market, essentially refers to the core "employment report" released by the United States every month, focusing on three key indicators:
- Non-farm employment numbers: Reflects the number of new jobs added in the United States last month, directly indicating the expansion or contraction of the job market.
- Unemployment rate: Refers to the proportion of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work, serving as an important measure of the tightness of the job market.
- Employment rate: The proportion of the employed labor force to the total labor force, intuitively reflecting the overall employment level.
It acts like a "thermometer" for the U.S. economy, using intuitive data to reflect the temperature of the job market, thereby influencing market judgments about the direction of the economy.
From a market impact perspective, different data performances will trigger vastly different market reactions:
1. If the non-farm employment number published is below 4 (unit: ten thousand), and the unemployment rate is in the range of 3.9%-4.1%, the market will worry about the deterioration of the job market—people will find it more difficult to get jobs, economic downward pressure will increase, and the market is likely to be under pressure and fall, possibly dropping to 107600 points.
2. If the non-farm employment number falls in the range of 4.5-7.0 (unit: ten thousand) while the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%-4.2%, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will significantly increase, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut will greatly rise, with the market expected to gain upward momentum, potentially climbing to 116000 points.
