Family, the night of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is just around the corner, which is significant for us Bitcoin bulls. What will our fate be? There are two key signals to keep a close eye on!
Looking back at history, before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2019, Bitcoin surged wildly, but once the rate cut news was announced, it plummeted by 38% in a single day, which is a typical case of good news being fully priced in. By 2024, it was thought that history would repeat itself, but as Trump took the stage, large amounts of ETF funds flowed in and companies increased their holdings, Bitcoin instead rose by 30%.
Looking at September 2025, there may be two scenarios. If Bitcoin breaks through $115,000 before the interest rate cut, it is highly likely to retrace just like in 2019, because the good news would have already been fully digested. If it oscillates between $100,000 and $105,000, it indicates that it hasn't been overly speculated, and after the interest rate cut, it could very likely continue to rise to $115,000.
So, whether it can break through $105,000 is key. Additionally, whether Powell's speech will release signals for continued easing is also very important. If his attitude is dovish, then Bitcoin bulls will definitely be more confident.
In the short term, the estimated fluctuation in September will not be too large. However, in the long term, I still have a positive outlook on Bitcoin. However, whether it can break through $120,000 by the end of the year still depends on the October CPI data, the positions of large enterprises, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
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