$XRP Crypto commentator Pumpius shared a detailed outlook suggesting that the approval of all spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by October 2025 could trigger a major XRP rally to $50 by December.

According to Pumpius, this is not based on speculation but on current filings, regulatory developments, and market structure.

He explained that there are already six to seven active S-1 filings or amendments before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These include submissions from Bitwise, 21Shares, WisdomTree, CoinShares, Canary Capital, and Franklin Templeton, which filed a dedicated Franklin XRP ETF S-1.

Pumpius noted that several amended S-1s were submitted following the dismissal of the Ripple case with the SEC, indicating that issuers are positioning for potential approval.

Pumpius highlighted that the SEC has aligned decisions for issuers such as WisdomTree to late October 2025. This creates what he called a synchronized decision window, meaning that multiple ETFs could receive approval simultaneously. If this occurs, launches could take place in the fourth quarter of 2025.

✨Regulatory and Institutional Support

The regulatory environment is also shifting. Pumpius pointed out that the SEC has begun publishing guidance on crypto ETFs, while exchanges are working on standard listing practices for crypto exchange-traded products.

This is designed to normalize approvals beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, creating a more favorable backdrop for XRP ahead of the October decision window.

Institutional infrastructure is another element that Pumpius considers significant. He cited the launch of XRP futures by CME in May 2025 and the listing of CFTC-regulated XRP futures by Coinbase Derivatives in April 2025.

Both developments mirror the pathway that Bitcoin and Ethereum followed before their ETFs were launched, suggesting a standard market playbook is unfolding for XRP as well.

✨Market Structure and Supply Mechanics

Pumpius stressed that ETF demand could result in a large-scale repricing of XRP due to the limited effective supply available for trading.

Approximately 35 to 36 billion XRP remain locked in escrow under pre-programmed releases, while most of the circulating supply is held by large entities and exchanges. This means that the actual free float is relatively thin when compared to the scale of potential institutional inflows.

According to Pumpius, independent market desks estimate that first-month inflows into spot XRP ETFs could exceed $5 billion. He argued that such demand, combined with limited supply, would create sharp upward pressure on price.

✨Price Projections and Potential Outcome

In his scenario analysis, Pumpius illustrated how ETF inflows could build. He suggested $5 to $8 billion in net inflows by late November 2025 across multiple issuers, with an additional $5 to $10 billion possible from futures arbitrage, registered investment advisor (RIA) rebalancing, and corporate treasury participation.

Against a circulating supply of over 59 billion XRP, he explained that this level of demand could trigger extreme price elasticity, which has previously resulted in significant price increases in other assets with larger free floats.

Pumpius concluded that $50 for XRP by December 2025 is plausible if spot ETFs are approved in October. He emphasized that this is not dependent on BlackRock’s participation, as more than six other issuers are already active.

He also described the broader narrative as one of institutionalization, where XRP is increasingly seen as a settlement asset in a post-litigation environment, with ETFs serving as the distribution layer.

🚀🚀🚀 FOLLOW BE_MASTER BUY_SMART 💰💰💰

Appreciate the work. 😍 Thank You. 👍 FOLLOW BeMaster BuySmart 🚀 TO FIND OUT MORE $$$$$ 🤩 BE MASTER BUY SMART 💰🤩

🚀🚀🚀 PLEASE CLICK FOLLOW BE MASTER BUY SMART - Thank You.