BIG GOAL....Gold's 2025 Surge: BTC-Gold Ratio Hints at Q4 Breakout
Gold has been a standout performer in 2025, significantly outpacing both Bitcoin (BTC) and the Nasdaq 100 index. Gold futures have recently hit $3,630 per ounce, and Gold ETF holdings reached a record 2,905 tonnes by the end of August. Year-to-date, gold has gained 37%, almost double Bitcoin's performance of 22%. The current BTC-Gold ratio is around 31.2 ounces of gold per BTC, down from 40 ounces in December 2024.
Market Dynamics and Outlook
Macroeconomic Factors: Gold's rally is largely attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty, including persistent inflation conc
erns, high debt burdens, slowing growth, and falling government bond yields.
BTC-Gold Ratio Analysis: Technical analysis reveals the BTC-XAU ratio has been consolidating within a large ascending triangle since 2017, a bullish continuation pattern. This structure points to a potential breakout by late Q4 2025 or early 2026. The current pullback is far shallower than previous cycles, suggesting underlying strength and maintaining a long-term bullish outlook for the ratio.
Goldman Sachs Outlook: Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $5,000 per ounce if the Federal Reserve's credibility is questioned, potentially pushing Bitcoin to $220,000 based on historical correlations.
