September Crash? Latest Research Questions the View of 'Seasonal Weakness'
There is a common cognitive inertia in the market that September is seen as the 'worst month' for the stock market, and traders often prepare in advance to guard against seasonal declines, as if this is an irreversible market rule.
However, the latest research challenges this, pointing out that the so-called 'September Weakness' may be more based on superstition than solid signals, and blindly following this view may even lead to losses for investors.
Investment service provider Market Radar refuted this narrative in an article on September 3, stating that most seasonal charts rely on averages, which can be easily affected by outliers. For example, when using the median to measure, the return rate in September is only -0.3%, far below the widely expected crash level.
This research further adopted the core idea of statistical testing, finding that the randomness of data for each month is higher than conventional cutoff values (p= 0.05). Therefore, the so-called 'September Weakness' phenomenon is actually just a part of the overall results and does not possess special predictive significance.
Market Radar also noted that smooth seasonal charts merely reflect the natural upward trend of the market over time. Investors often interpret these lines as hidden market rhythms, but in reality, they simply reflect the fact that the frequency of stock market increases is higher than that of decreases.
The company concluded that the market does not fluctuate due to calendar rhythms but rather according to macroeconomic factors such as growth, inflation, and liquidity. Therefore, seasonal declines are noise, while the macroeconomy is the real signal.
The price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between $108,538 and $111,640 in the past 24 hours, currently stabilizing above $110,500. Although Bitcoin has dropped nearly 11% from its historical peak, market performance in the long term remains promising.
The price of Bitcoin has risen nearly 88% compared to the same period last year and has maintained a strong market dominance, indicating that in a highly volatile market environment, investors are more inclined to view it as a safer asset than altcoins.
Analyst views suggest that although miner sell-offs and rising electricity costs put pressure on prices in August, such seasonal effects typically gradually fade as autumn approaches.
