Has Bitcoin Found Its Bottom? Price Trends and Indicator Divergence Reveal Key Signals

The current market focus is on whether Bitcoin has found bottom support. Recent price movements and on-chain indicators are providing crucial clues to this question.

From the price perspective, Bitcoin is expected to achieve three consecutive days of gains at the beginning of September, a trend that has not been seen since early August. Looking back to August, after reaching $113,000, Bitcoin rose back to $124,000 within two weeks. If this upward momentum can continue, it may become an important signal of bottom formation.

On-chain indicators are also sending positive signals: if the current upward trend persists, short-term holders are likely to avoid realizing profits/losses in the red area that represents “capitulation,” which is starkly different from last week when BTC broke below $110,000 — at that time, the market recorded $943 million in realized losses, reflecting the state of panic seen during the peak of market fear in April.

What is even more noteworthy is the “abnormal divergence” between indicators: despite previous sell-offs, Bitcoin's net realized profit/loss has not entered the loss zone but instead surged to a one-month high, recording $4.2 billion in net profit, which is completely contrary to typical bear market trends. It is important to note that during 2022 when Bitcoin declined 63% for the entire year, it was precisely because investors were generally selling at a loss that NRPL turned to losses simultaneously.

So, does the current divergence between price and NRPL mean that market confidence in Bitcoin remains strong? This question may become central to assessing future trends.