The market crashed, yet BTC played out a 'reverse situation', with 112000 becoming a new battleground for bulls and bears!
Today, the global market is not very calm, with major indices in A-shares collectively plummeting. The ChiNext Index has fallen over 4%, the Shenzhen Component Index has also dropped nearly 3%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.7%, with over 3100 stocks in the market showing red. This kind of 'falling without recognition from mom' scene would have dragged BTC down in the past, but today Bitcoin seems to be 'resisting the trend,' surprisingly holding at $110500 and even rebounding to $112458, indicating that the independence of the crypto market is getting stronger, no longer completely trailing behind traditional financial markets.
Personally, I believe that BTC can withstand the pressure of the market crash mainly due to three forces: institutional bottom-fishing, expectations of interest rate cuts, and on-chain support. The number of whale addresses has reached a historical high, and institutions like BlackRock's ETF are continuously attracting capital, with a net inflow of $440 million last week, indicating that large funds are buying more as prices fall, showing no fear of short-term market sentiment. Additionally, the expectation of the Fed cutting rates in September has surged to 95%, and the expectation of increased liquidity benefits risk assets collectively, with BTC naturally reaping the rewards as 'digital gold'.
However, don’t think that the bull market will be smooth sailing! Short-term risks still exist: the 112500-113500 area has formed a significant resistance band, and every time it rises to here, there is a decrease in volume and a pullback, indicating that the bulls are temporarily reluctant to charge hard. Moreover, short-term holders may collectively sell to break even around 113600, creating selling pressure. Therefore, those chasing highs are likely to find themselves stuck at the peak.
The market trend from this early morning is particularly typical: BTC first briefly fell below 111000, then quickly rebounded, performing a 'trap before reverse rally' specifically to cut off those impulsively shorting. This kind of play is especially common in a volatile market, so we need to be more vigilant and not easily chase highs or cut losses.
In short, BTC is currently in a 'volatile accumulation' phase, with a top above and a bottom below. The stock market's significant drop has not crushed it; instead, it may lead to more funds flowing into the crypto market for safety.
Tonight, focus on two key points: Can it break through 113500 with volume, or will it drop below the support at 109000?
If it breaks through, the next target will be 117200.
If it drops below, it may retest the bottom or even test 107000.
September has always been a month of explosive volatility. Controlling positions and avoiding leveraged bets is the way to survive.
Pay attention to the opening of US stocks tonight. If the Nasdaq continues to fall, will BTC truly 'decouple' and strengthen independently? If you are unclear about the specific timing, you can pay attention to @船长趋势 , and friends who have followed me for 24 hours for real-time reminders, please keep an eye on my homepage comment section for your predictions!
