Is September's cryptocurrency market the beginning of a new trend or is it coming to an end? It is currently difficult to make a definitive judgment and requires a comprehensive analysis of multiple factors.

From recent market performance, on September 1st, cryptocurrency stocks showed strong gains, with Huajian Medical, New Fire Technology Holdings, and other cryptocurrency concept stocks leading in increases. This may be a preemptive reaction by the market to the expectations of a rate cut in September, indicating that some investors are optimistic about the cryptocurrency market.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September has reached 89.6%. Generally, a rate cut injects confidence and liquidity into the market, which is beneficial for the rise of risk asset prices. However, there are also viewpoints suggesting that a rate cut may come with concerns about an economic recession, and this dual impact could exacerbate market uncertainty. For example, Bitfinex released a report stating that if a loosening cycle coincides with an economic recession, Bitcoin could drop by 15% to 20% after the rate cut in September.

Additionally, the cryptocurrency market is influenced by regulatory policies, the U.S. elections, and other factors. Global markets are tightening regulations on cryptocurrencies, and the increased enforcement actions by the U.S. SEC may put pressure on cryptocurrency prices. Different political positions and policy tendencies of U.S. election candidates could also lead to significant fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices.

Overall, there is considerable uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market in September. In the short term, the market could hype favorable conditions due to rate cut expectations, but there may also be a situation where prices drop initially after the rate cut is implemented. In the long term, whether cryptocurrencies can usher in a new bull market will depend on the direction of Powell's speeches and subsequent macroeconomic conditions, regulatory policies, and other factors. $BTC $ETH