With the September interest rate cut, is the cryptocurrency market poised for a takeoff?
Hey guys, don't get too excited yet; this isn't the first time we've seen these American tactics.
When the word "interest rate cut" comes out, a lot of people immediately shout about a bull market takeoff, but the reality is the exact opposite.
Short-term (1-4 weeks): Hold on, don't chase!
Why?
As soon as good news arrives, the first reaction of smart money is to run—
Expectations are fulfilled, profits are secured, and leveraged investors are wiped out.
Think back to March 2020, when the Fed cut interest rates and the market halved. The scenario is exactly the same.
If you impulsively jump in now, you'll quickly become the one to take the pound.
Medium- to long-term: Real money is coming.
Interest rate cuts mean cheaper money, and coupled with the high probability of approval for an ETH ETF,
this is the "dual engine" of the cryptocurrency market.
Imagine this:
BTC ETFs see an average daily inflow of $300 million. Once ETH catches fire, staking, Layer 2, and DeFi will flourish.
Forget $150,000; even a potential "cryptocurrency Nasdaq" is no dream.
Three possible scenarios:
1️⃣ Best (40%): An interest rate cut and the launch of an ETH ETF accelerate the bull market, pushing BTC to $150,000.
2️⃣ High probability (50%): An interest rate cut occurs, but the economy falters, leading to a combined turmoil in both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market, causing Bitcoin to trade sideways, while altcoins continue to suffer.
3️⃣ Worst (10%): Inflation resurfaces, and the Fed reverses course by "pausing interest rate cuts," resulting in another halving, directly liquidating a large number of investors.
Retail Investor Strategy
Don't overthink it; just three words:
Don't chase highs in the short term: Even if Bitcoin hits $130,000, remember this: "Quit while you're ahead."
Keep an eye on the ETH ETF: If it's approved, invest some ETH and ecosystem tokens (OP, SSV); if it's unsuccessful, run.
Keep your options open: If there's a real crash, buy the dips in BTC/ETH in batches. In a bull market, the safest option is to follow the faucet.
Brothers, remember:
A bull market in the cryptocurrency world isn't driven by dreams, but by the water itself.
The September interest rate cut is just the beginning of the faucet.
Reap the short-term gains; the long-term drama unfolds.
Don't panic, don't go crazy; only those who persevere will have the last laugh.
