Having worked in the crypto space for over a decade, experiencing the 2017 ICO bubble, the 2020 black swan, the 2021 bull market frenzy, and the 2022 LUNA collapse, I have seen too many projects go from being chased by the crowd to being ignored. But the resilience and evolutionary speed of SOL (Solana) make me willing to take the time to deeply analyze its long-term value—perhaps the dual catalysts of the October SOL ETF approval and Alpenglow technical upgrades will become the starting point for a new market cycle. This guide aims to help long-term holders clarify the context, from data to logic.
1. Fundamentals: DeFi + RWA dual-wheel drive, the ecological thickness is no longer comparable to the past
(1) In the DeFi sector: From 'catching up' to 'sitting firmly in second place'
SOL's DeFi ecosystem has long since shed the fragility of early 'single application dependence.' As of August 31, 2025, DefiLlama data shows its total value locked (TVL) reached $18.7 billion, a 36% increase from $13.8 billion at the end of the second quarter, just a step away from the historical peak of $19.6 billion in November 2021. More critically, ecological diversity has significantly improved: the previous reliance on a single lending protocol has been broken, with the current top 10 DeFi protocols covering lending (Marinade), DEX (Raydium), stablecoin issuance (Circle), derivatives (Drift), and other fields, with the market share of leading protocols dropping from 60% to 35%, greatly enhancing resilience.
Stablecoins are a core indicator of the ecosystem's 'blood.' The total market value of stablecoins on the SOL chain reached $4.2 billion, with USDC accounting for 71% (about $3 billion), a 120% increase from the same period last year. More significantly, PayPal's PYUSD positioning—since its issuance on the SOL chain in May 2025, the circulation of PYUSD has exceeded $180 million, supporting direct use within the SOL ecosystem for NFT purchases and DeFi trading—indicates that traditional payment giants are beginning to view SOL as 'on-chain payment infrastructure' rather than merely a speculative asset. (2) RWA explosion: Traditional financial giants' 'on-chain testing ground' saw SOL's RWA (real-world assets) scale surge 140% year-on-year, jumping from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $2.9 billion. This growth is not mere 'empty talk,' but is backed by concrete institutional projects:
BlackRock issued a 'tokenized short-term treasury product' (BLK Treasury Token) on the SOL chain in March 2025, with a scale of $520 million, supporting automatic interest calculation and maturity payment through smart contracts. It has attracted participation from 12 hedge funds;
Franklin Templeton’s 'Corporate Credit Token' (FD Credit Token) launched on SOL has reduced the settlement cycle of traditional credit products from 3 days to 10 minutes, with cumulative trading volume exceeding $800 million as of August;
Even traditional real estate giant CBRE is piloting 'commercial real estate share tokenization' on SOL, with the first office asset split transaction attracting 2000 retail investors, lowering the minimum investment threshold from $1 million to $1,000.
These cases confirm a logic: the high throughput and low fees of SOL precisely address the core pain points of traditional asset 'on-chain' transformation—high-frequency trading demands and low-cost settlement, which are advantages that Ethereum (high Gas fees) and Bitcoin (single functionality) find difficult to replace.
2. On-chain data: Users and funds vote with their feet, with activity levels crushing mainstream public chains
(1) The capital reservoir continues to expand
In addition to DeFi locked assets, SOL's 'total ecological assets' (including on-chain stablecoins, NFT market value, RWA scale) have reached $29.6 billion, up 28% from the second quarter. The NFT sector has performed brightly: in August, SOL's on-chain NFT trading volume reached $430 million, an 85% increase from the same period last year. Although the floor prices of leading projects DeGods and Mad Lads have not returned to historical highs, daily trading volumes remain stable above $20 million, indicating that user stickiness has not diminished.
(2) Daily usage volume: The transformation from 'speculative tool' to 'practical network'
Nansen on-chain data shows that in August, the daily active addresses on SOL (excluding exchange wallets) reached 22.3 million, a tenfold increase from 2.1 million at the beginning of 2024; the daily transaction count reached 98 million, peaking at 162 million on August 15th—what does this mean? During the same period, Bitcoin's daily transactions averaged about 5.8 million, and Ethereum's about 8.8 million, making SOL's actual usage frequency 17 times that of Bitcoin and 11 times that of Ethereum.
More critically, the 'real user proportion': the transaction volume from non-exchange addresses on the SOL chain accounts for 67%, far higher than Ethereum's 42% and Bitcoin's 28%, indicating that the proportion of 'real usage' (rather than mere transfer speculation) in its ecosystem is higher. For example, the social application Dialect has 1.2 million daily active users on SOL, allowing users to send messages directly through on-chain wallets with small SOL transfers, generating 130 million transactions in a single month; this 'high-frequency small transaction' scenario is a strong suit of SOL. (3) Performance advantage: From 'paper parameters' to 'actual experience.' SOL's current theoretical TPS (transactions per second) reaches 65,000, with actual peaks processed over 120,000 TPS (during the NFT sale in May 2025), while Ethereum's mainnet TPS is about 26, and Layer 2 such as Arbitrum is about 1500, Avalanche about 4500. More intuitively, user experience: a SOL transfer takes an average of 380 milliseconds from initiation to confirmation, with fees around $0.00023; while an Ethereum transfer takes an average of 12 seconds, with fees of $0.5-2 (depending on network congestion).
The upcoming Alpenglow upgrade (expected to be completed in mid-October) will further optimize: by improving the 'Proof of History (PoH)' algorithm and the 'Tower BFT' consensus mechanism, transaction confirmation times will be compressed to 120 milliseconds, and it will support 'parallel transaction validation,' maintaining stable fees below $0.0001 even during peak network times. Coinbase has completed node optimization on the testnet, with data showing that node latency dropped from 180 milliseconds to 108 milliseconds, and single node daily transaction processing volume increased from 3 million to 5.25 million, validating the upgrade's actual effects.
3. Technical upgrades: Alpenglow and Firedancer, not just 'faster,' but also 'more stable'
One of the past controversies surrounding SOL was 'network stability' (which experienced multiple outages in 2022), but technical iterations over the past two years have significantly improved: the network had zero downtime throughout 2024, with the number of nodes increasing from 1,500 in 2022 to 3,800, greatly enhancing decentralization.
The core of the Alpenglow upgrade is 'anti-fragility': even if 20% of the nodes go offline simultaneously, the network can still maintain consensus, and the recovery time has been reduced from 10 minutes to 30 seconds. This is crucial for institutional users—traditional institutions like BlackRock have much higher requirements for 'on-chain asset security' than retail investors, and network stability is a prerequisite for their entry.
What’s even more exciting is the Firedancer technology (expected to launch in Q1 2026): as a brand new validator client, it enhances theoretical TPS to 1 million through 'GPU accelerated computation' and 'modular architecture,' while supporting 'dynamic sharding' (automatically splitting network load based on transaction volume). The current testnet has achieved stable operation at 300,000 TPS, and once implemented, SOL will possess the performance to support a 'global payment network,' which is also the core reason why giants like Visa and Mastercard are continuously researching SOL.
4. SOL ETF: The 'front door' to institutional funds is about to open
The U.S. SEC has postponed the approval date for the SOL ETF to October 16, which seems negative but actually aligns with historical patterns—Bitcoin ETF applications took 7 years and 11 delays from initial application to approval. As the 'top candidate for public chain ETF,' the SEC's caution is understandable. However, Bloomberg intelligence analyst James Seyffart gives a 90% approval probability, based primarily on the fact that SOL's decentralization level (node distribution, token holding dispersion) has passed the SEC's internal evaluation, and its ecosystem focuses on 'application scenarios' rather than purely 'value storage,' thereby avoiding regulatory disputes over 'commodity futures.'
From previous cases, Canada launched the 'CI Global Solana ETF' (code SOLX) in June 2025, reaching a scale of 420 million Canadian dollars as of August, supporting automatic staking (annualized yield of 5.8%), with institutions accounting for 62% of the holding users (mainly pensions and family offices). Although the SSK ETF (full name 'Solana Strategy ETF') in the U.S. does not directly hold SOL, its two largest holdings are 'stocks of listed companies holding SOL in their treasury' (45% share) and SOL staking derivatives (30% share), currently totaling $180 million, with a net inflow of $92 million over the past three months, indicating strong institutional entry willingness.
Capital trends speak volumes: In the third quarter of 2025, the funds flowing into SOL through compliant channels like Grayscale and CoinShares reached $1.72 billion, including $370 million purchased by BlackRock's 'Digital Asset Opportunities Fund,' and SpaceX disclosed holding $120 million in SOL in its latest financial report (for on-chain data settlement for Starlink satellites). This capital is not short-term speculation—institutions have an average holding period of 14 months, far longer than the 2-3 months of retail investors, indicating their optimism about long-term ecological value.
5. Risk warning: The 'hidden reefs' behind prosperity
Uncertainty in ETF approval: Despite a high probability, the SEC may still delay again citing 'node concentration' and 'code centralization' (even to Q1 2026). Historically, the XRP ETF was delayed for 3 years due to legal disputes, so one must prepare psychologically.
Regulatory classification risk: The SEC's newly established 'Crypto Asset Classification Working Group' is currently assessing whether SOL falls under 'securities.' If classified as securities, it will face stricter disclosure requirements, potentially impacting ETF liquidity.
Intensifying competition: Ethereum Layer 2 (such as Arbitrum One) has reduced transaction fees by 94% through 'EIP-4844' (currently about $0.05 per transaction) and is compatible with the Ethereum ecosystem; the new public chain SEI has achieved 30,000 TPS with its 'Twin-Turbo' engine, with TVL growing 200% to $870 million in August, diverting some high-frequency trading users.
Ecological revenue paradox: Despite a 36% increase in locked assets, the total revenue (transaction fees + interest) from SOL's ecological applications has decreased by 44% (from $12 million in the second quarter to $6.7 million). The core reason is that DeFi protocols have drastically reduced fees to attract users (for example, Raydium's transaction fee rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.1%). Whether this 'price for volume' model can be sustained needs to be observed regarding user retention and commercialization capability.
6. Long-term investment strategy: How to 'hold' and 'earn steadily'
(1) Suitable demographic profile
High-growth seekers: Can withstand fluctuations of over 30%, optimistic about the technological iteration dividends in the public chain sector;
Technical believers: Recognize 'performance equals value' and believe high TPS is a prerequisite for large-scale blockchain applications in the future;
Portfolio diversifiers: Besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, need to allocate 1-2 high-potential public chains to balance returns.
(2) Practical suggestions
Gradual accumulation rhythm:
First position (30%): Layout before the end of September, the current price (assuming around $150) is at a central position of the past 6 months, with a high safety margin;
Second position (40%): Around the time of ETF approval in October, if approved and there is a correction, then increase position; if it rises directly, then observe;
Third position (30%): After the Alpenglow upgrade is completed (late October), decide whether to add positions based on actual performance data.
Staking to enhance returns:
Conservative choice: SOL staking on Coinbase and Kraken (annualized 5.5-6%, supports redemption anytime, suitable for beginners);
Advanced choice: Marinade's 'liquid staking' (mSOL), allows participation in DeFi mining, with comprehensive returns of 8-10%, but carries smart contract risks.
Key nodes tracking:
October 16: SEC ETF approval results;
October 20: Alpenglow upgrade completion;
Q1 2026: Firedancer testnet public data;
At the beginning of each quarter: Progress of BlackRock and Franklin Templeton's RWA projects.
(3) Asset allocation ratio
Cryptocurrency asset allocation: Recommend 15-25% (conservative 15%, aggressive 25%), with the remaining positions allocated to Bitcoin (40-50%), Ethereum (20-30%), and stablecoins (10%);
Traditional investors: Participate indirectly through the SSK ETF (code SSK) or listed companies holding SOL (such as MicroStrategy, which has a 5% share of SOL in its treasury), reducing compliance risks of holding coins directly.
7. Future outlook: Price anchor points in a three-year dimension
Short-term (within 1 year): ETF approval + technical upgrade catalysts, price likely to hit $220-250 (corresponding market cap around $80-90 billion, close to 1/3 of Ethereum's current market cap);
Mid-term (within 2 years): If Firedancer is implemented and RWA scale surpasses $10 billion, the price is expected to reach $300-400 (market cap of $110-150 billion);
Long-term (3 years +): If it becomes the core chain for 'global payments + RWA,' targeting 1/10 of Visa's (current market cap of $480 billion), the price could reach $500-700.
Of course, all this relies on the premise of 'continuous ecological evolution'—competition among public chains is like a marathon; technology, capital, and users are all indispensable. But at least for now, SOL's displayed 'performance advantage + institutional entry + ecological diversity' qualifies it to be one of the candidates for long-term holding.
A final reminder: There is no 'sure win' in the crypto market. The above analysis is based on current data and needs to be dynamically tracked and adjusted. But for true long-term holders, seeing through the logic is more important than guessing prices—SOL's value ultimately depends on how much real-world demand it can accommodate.
