25/08/29 Bitcoin continues its downward channel, Ethereum's upward trend has broken. When will there be a bottom-fishing opportunity?
Bitcoin continues its downward channel, breaking below previous low support. The daily line is breaking below MA120. After the PCE data was released, it rebounded briefly before continuing to decline and has now broken below the previous low.
The daily trend line for Ethereum has broken. In the past few days, I have been reminding not to chase long positions here; there is not much room and the cost-effectiveness is low. I also believe it will break the upward trend line. Based on the current Bitcoin pullback, it cannot be ruled out that Ethereum will complete a shark pattern, targeting around 3500. Initially, I see it oscillating in a range from 4060 to the previous high before a false breakdown and rebound. However, considering Bitcoin's continuous new lows, the Ethereum shark pattern has a chance to reach around 3500.
The bad news is that the three major US stock indices have fallen, with Nvidia down nearly 3%. Additionally, as the monthly line is about to close, volatility will be relatively large.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has broken below the previous low support at 108666. As of the time of writing, it has briefly dropped to 108103 and is still oscillating near the previous low. The daily line has broken below MA120 support. If it cannot recover by the close, and with the monthly line about to close, volatility will be relatively large.
Pay attention to the support at the lower Bollinger band of the 3-day line. In the past few years, the first time returning to the lower Bollinger band of the 3-day line has provided support and rebounded, but it must be a strong volume spike. If it breaks again, the first bottom-fishing opportunity could reach 98000 to 100000.
Support: 98000 to 100000 to 106000
Resistance: 114000 to 117400 to 118600
Ethereum
The daily line has a false breakout. A few days ago, I felt this upward trend would break. It is under pressure below the previous high; if it cannot rebound past this resistance, it will continue to decline. Here, like Bitcoin, if there is a sharp drop, then the Ethereum shark pattern points to 3500. This also happens to be near MA60 support, which would extend the adjustment period.
Support: 3500 to 3800 to 3900
Resistance: 4665 to 4778 to 4956
