The price of Bitcoin has faced difficulties in the last 30 days, falling more than 6%, while Ethereum rose over 16% in the same period. In the last week, BTC fell another 2% and is currently trading just below R$ 111 thousand.
This level is critical because the point of invalidation is around R$ 108.6 thousand — a break at this point could expose Bitcoin to deeper losses. Still, on-chain signals suggest there may be a chance for recovery, with a key group of investors showing the strongest bullish signal in a month.
Supply in profit approaches local lows again
One of the important on-chain measures for Bitcoin is the percentage of supply in profit.
On August 25, this percentage dropped to 88.53%, close to the three-month low of 87.02% recorded on June 22. The decline in June in the supply in profit triggered a rally, with BTC rising 22% in the following weeks.
A similar pattern also occurred on August 2, when the metric dropped to 91.64% from a high of 98.91%. After this drop, the price of Bitcoin rose again by nearly 10% in just 10 days.
Bitcoin Price and Supply in Profit: Glassnode
These examples show that when fewer investors are in profit, there is less incentive to sell. Although the metric may sometimes signal weakness or even panic selling, in this case, it is close to levels that previously triggered strong bullish moves.
This is why the supply in profit metric is important to track — but it should not be analyzed in isolation.
Long-term investors become net buyers
This time, the strongest signal comes from long-term investors, often referred to as 'HODLers'. The change in their net position shows whether they are increasing or decreasing their Bitcoin holdings each month.
Bitcoin Price and Change in HODLers' Position: Glassnode
Since late July, this group has been on the sidelines or even selling, keeping the indicator mostly negative. The only brief positive signal was on August 24, which coincided with a small price jump from around R$ 110 thousand to R$ 111 thousand, although it did not last, as selling quickly resumed.
Now, however, the metric has clearly turned positive for the first time in a month, showing an increase of 3,429 BTC.
This is the strongest accumulation signal since late July. When this same group of long-term investors shifted strongly to accumulation — around June 22 — it coincided with the same period when the supply in profit hit its lows, and Bitcoin rose from R$ 101,084 thousand to R$ 123,313 thousand, an increase of 22%.
This story makes this change significant. If these investors continue to add instead of selling quickly, this could provide the foundation for another recovery.
Bitcoin price levels and recovery zone to watch
At the time of this report, the price of Bitcoin is trading just below R$ 111 thousand. It has already broken a key support around R$ 111,074 thousand, and the next immediate support is at R$ 110.5 thousand, with the deeper safety net at R$ 108.6 thousand.
If the final level yields, the bearish scenario will strengthen and invalidate any expectation of BTC price recovery. This could happen if the bullish signal led by HODLers disappears.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView
On the positive side, however, the scenario is different. The first recovery zone appears around R$ 113.4 thousand. Recovering and maintaining above this level would not only be a short-term bounce — it would give the price of Bitcoin the necessary strength to aim higher again.
The article Bitcoin Analysis: BTC Attempts Recovery with Bullish Signal from HODLers was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
