Market review and personal trading insights
Looking back at yesterday's market, we judged that Bitcoin was still in a bearish pattern, so we suggested shorting on rallies. Ethereum and altcoins were basically already close to their peaks. It turned out that these predictions were largely validated. Yesterday in the members' group, we also discussed that if Bitcoin could stabilize at $112,500, it might form a 'cup and handle' pattern and have a chance to rally to $114,000. At that time, I was also hesitating whether to open a long position, but ultimately did not execute.
A friend asked me, since $112,900 has stabilized, why not go long? The reason is that although a small descending trend line has been broken here, there is still a larger trend line resistance above, which also overlaps with the previous high resistance area. Therefore, I chose to wait and only opened a short position at night, ultimately making a profit. I have partially taken profits, and the remaining profits continue to be held.
Trading system and mindset
The trade from the day before yesterday was unsuccessful, but this is a normal phenomenon in the operation of the trading system. The key to trading is not that every order is profitable but to strictly execute trading rules, reasonably control positions, and ensure a long-term positive expected value (EV). As long as one adheres to the system's discipline, profits will accumulate over time. This is also what I repeatedly emphasize—consistently executing the system is more important than the outcome of individual trades.
Solana market analysis
Next, let's talk about Solana. From the daily level, it is still in a clear bullish pattern, with the trend continuously making new highs. However, within the current range, the opportunity to chase long positions is not ideal. Theoretically, it still has the potential to rise to $231, but it is currently near the previous high resistance area, coupled with the exchange of support and resistance, making the risk of chasing higher quite significant.
The previous good entry points for increasing positions were near the support of the Vegas channel; each time it intersects with the moving average, it is a low-cost entry opportunity.
Ethereum trend judgment
Let's take another look at Ethereum. Although the daily chart still maintains a bullish pattern, yesterday's candlestick formed a doji, indicating clear pressure above. Unlike the strong rebound when previously touching the trend line, the market currently shows signs of fatigue, and with the weekend approaching, there is uncertainty in the trend.
On the hourly level, if the price touches around $4657 again and forms a top divergence, the probability of breaking below the ascending trend line will significantly increase. Currently, there is no clear bottom structure, so it is not safe to trade long recklessly on the trend line. If it breaks down afterwards, the first target can be set at $4314, which was the key neck line position previously. My personal medium to long-term strategy is: if Ethereum retreats to the $4200–4400 range, I will consider buying in batches instead of using derivatives.
Short-term fluctuations of Bitcoin
In comparison, Bitcoin's trend is more complex. Yesterday's daily close was at a relatively high level, showing some support but not strong. Today's candlestick shows signs of engulfing, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears, with the market potentially reversing at any moment.
On the hourly level, there was actually a better long opportunity yesterday: breaking the descending trend line and retesting the neck line (around $110,800), accompanied by a 'morning star' pattern, which was enough to support a short-term long position.
Currently, Bitcoin has broken below the hourly ascending trend line, and short-term support is gradually weakening. We have partially taken profits, with the next target set at $111,000. If it breaks down further, yesterday's bullish candlestick will be completely engulfed, the market will return to a bearish trend, and it may drop to the $106,000–$98,000 range. This area is exactly where we plan to buy in spot and is also an ideal price point for long-term positioning.