Backed by the Trump family, WLFI (World Liberty Financial) has drawn attention since its inception due to controversy and topicality. On September 1, the project will launch an Ethereum DeFi protocol, simultaneously unlocking 20% of early investors' presale tokens (team, advisor, and other tokens are temporarily locked), an action that may trigger market volatility, which can be analyzed from multiple dimensions.

I. Core Information Overview of WLFI Unlocking

Unlock Time: September 1, 2025

Unlock Scope: 20% of the tokens from early investors' presale (tokens from other roles will not be released for now)

Price and Cost: Early investor costs range from $0.015 to $0.05, and pre-market contract prices have fluctuated between $0.22 and $0.55

Holdings and Valuation: Trump personally holds 15.75 billion tokens (valued at about $6 billion); FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) is about $22 billion, initial circulating market value is approximately $1.1 billion (calculated based on 5 billion circulating tokens at $0.22 each)

II. Two Key Expectations for Market Trends After Unlocking

1. Bearish Logic: Profit-taking pressure and 'good news already priced in'

- High-Yield Driven Cash-Out: Early investors have very low costs, and even at the current pre-market price of $0.22, their returns exceed 14 times, creating significant profit space that may trigger concentrated exits.

- Hedging Reduces Reluctance to Sell: Some early investors may lock in profits through perpetual contracts and other derivatives, allowing them to hedge losses when selling spot, even profiting from price declines, reducing their patience with holdings.

- 'Buy the Expectation, Sell the Fact' Effect: The project's long preheat cycle and high attention may lead some investors to believe that positive outcomes have been realized post-unlocking and choose to exit.

2. Bullish Logic: Small circulation and narrative support

- Small Circulation Easily Driven: Although the FDV reaches hundreds of billions of dollars, the initial circulating market value is only about $1.1 billion, making it easier for funds to drive prices under high heat.

- Potential Boost from Trump's Endorsement: Trump and his family may promote WLFI on social media, as his previous support for the TRUMP token helped to boost its price, adding a unique appeal to the token through political narrative.

- Ecological Value Support: WLFI is not just a pure meme coin; it has businesses like the USD1 stablecoin, and maintaining a high token price helps attract traffic into the ecosystem, forming a value loop.

III. Spillover Effects on the Crypto Market

1. Fund Diversion and Sector Volatility: The listing of WLFI may siphon off market funds and attention, leading to potential short-term outflows from Trump-related concept coins (like TRUMP), political tokens, and the DeFi sector, increasing volatility.

2. 'Political Token' Trendsetter: As a representative political token, the performance of WLFI will influence market confidence and valuation logic for similar projects, determining the subsequent popularity of the sector.

3. Regulatory Risk Transmission: The deep involvement and profit of the Trump family have sparked discussions on conflicts of interest, and subsequent regulatory scrutiny or political debates may not only affect WLFI but also impact the entire crypto industry (especially under the backdrop of U.S. elections, crypto regulation is more sensitive).

4. Traditional Financial Integration Testing: WLFI has a $1.5 billion private placement agreement with Nasdaq company ALT5 Sigma, and the USD1 stablecoin has been adopted by some institutions. Its development can be seen as a litmus test for traditional finance's acceptance of 'political DeFi'.

IV. Recommendations for Different Participants

- Short-term Traders: Face high volatility risks, closely monitor trading volume, order book depth, and Trump’s social dynamics around September 1, strictly control positions, and set take-profit and stop-loss levels.

- Long-term Investors: Focus on the project's fundamentals, paying particular attention to the adoption rate of the USD1 stablecoin, the TVL (Total Value Locked) of DeFi protocols, and ecological sustainability, while being wary of over-leveraged valuations.

- Industry Observers: This can be used as a case study to explore the combined effects of political narratives and cryptocurrencies, as well as the market's focus on 'meme attributes' versus 'utility value', while also paying attention to the dynamics of U.S. regulation.

V. Summary

The unlocking of WLFI is a focal event in the recent crypto market, merging political narratives, wealth effects, market dynamics, and regulatory risks. In the short term, the bulls and bears are fiercely contending over 'early profit-taking pressure' and 'Trump's endorsement benefits', making volatility inevitable; in the medium to long term, it depends on the actual development of the ecology and regulatory responses. For market participants, rather than blindly betting on ups and downs, it is more valuable to pay attention to the market logic and industry signals behind the events.