According to ChainCatcher, JPMorgan analysts stated that Bitcoin's current price is 'too low' compared to gold because its volatility has fallen to an all-time low; Bitcoin's volatility has dropped from nearly 60% at the beginning of the year to about 30% now, setting a new historical low; therefore, Bitcoin's fair value is approximately $126,000, and this target is expected to be reached by the end of the year.
Analysts stated that factors such as corporate capital accumulation, index-driven capital inflows, and decreased volatility have collectively enhanced Bitcoin's investment value, with lower volatility making it easier for institutional investors to allocate capital, and the risk-adjusted valuation of Bitcoin and gold is now closer than ever.
Analysts say that the volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold has dropped to 2 — the lowest level on record — which means that in the current portfolio configuration, the risk capital consumed by Bitcoin is twice that of gold.
Based on this, to match Bitcoin's market cap of $2.2 trillion with the approximately $5 trillion private gold investment scale, its market cap would need to increase by about 13%, meaning the theoretical price would need to reach $126,000.
Analysts also pointed out that this gap has changed, from Bitcoin trading at $36,000 above this fair value level at the end of 2024, to now being about $13,000 below it, indicating that Bitcoin still has potential for further increases.
