The current focus of the crypto market is gradually shifting from BTC and ETH ETFs to XRP ETFs— as the U.S. SEC has set the ruling dates for multiple XRP spot ETF applications in October (October 19 for institutions like 21Shares, Grayscale, etc., and October 24 for WisdomTree), discussions on their potential impact are heating up. Dom Kwok, co-founder of EasyA, and ETF analyst Nate Geraci, among others in the industry, have pointed out that if the XRP ETF is approved, it could break the record for capital inflows into crypto ETFs. The underlying logic is not simply 'category expansion' but a threefold drive of 'demand-side pain point resolution + supply-side scale advantage + market sentiment resonance.'
1. Core logic on the demand side: XRP's 'differentiated advantage' precisely matches the target demographic for ETFs.
The XRP ETF is highly anticipated primarily because its asset attributes align closely with the needs of ETF investors, especially addressing the pain points of 'retail investor thresholds' and 'global holding bases' that current BTC and ETH ETFs have not covered.
1. Low price threshold: Becomes the 'first choice for retail investors to enter crypto.'
Compared to BTC (currently about $112,000 per unit) and ETH (about $4,600 per unit) with high unit prices, XRP (about $0.6-$0.7 per unit) significantly lowers the participation threshold for retail investors. Dom Kwok mentioned in an interview that 'the nominal prices of BTC and ETH make it difficult for most retail investors to 'make small mistakes,' while XRP's unit price makes it a 'lightweight choice' for ETF investors'—this means that when investors purchase the XRP ETF through brokerage accounts, they do not need to bear high costs per unit and can participate through 'small fixed investments,' perfectly matching the risk preferences of novice investors.
2. Global holder base is the largest: Demand base far exceeds that of other crypto assets.
According to data from Chainalysis and others, the number of global holders of XRP exceeds 40 million, covering over 190 countries and regions, making it the most widely held crypto asset after BTC. This characteristic means the potential audience for the XRP ETF includes not only traditional ETF investors but also global retail investors who already hold XRP but wish to increase their holdings through compliant channels—this combination of 'existing demand + incremental demand' is an advantage that BTC and ETH ETFs did not have when they were launched (BTC holders are about 30 million, concentrated in mature markets like North America and Europe).
3. Liquidity remains in the top three: No pressure to accommodate large capital inflows.
One of the core requirements for an ETF is that 'underlying assets must possess high liquidity' to avoid significant deviations between ETF price and net asset value. XRP currently has an average daily trading volume exceeding $2 billion, with liquidity second only to BTC (average daily exceeding $30 billion) and ETH (average daily exceeding $15 billion), and the futures market has open contracts exceeding $1 billion (achieving this milestone in three months, setting the fastest record for crypto futures)—this means that even if the XRP ETF experiences hundreds of millions of dollars in inflows in one day, it can achieve smooth positioning through the linkage of spot and futures markets without worrying about 'liquidity shocks.'
2. Supply side and regulatory progress: Over 10 applications create a 'scale effect'; the October ruling becomes a 'life-and-death line.'
Unlike BTC (3 ETF applications) and ETH (1 ETF application) being driven by 'one or a few institutions,' the XRP ETF shows a 'collective layout by multiple institutions' characteristic, and this supply-side scale advantage will further amplify its capacity to accept funds post-approval.
1. Record number of applications: 10+ institutions positioning, forming a 'category consensus.'
So far, over 10 leading asset management institutions such as 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, CoinShares, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton have submitted XRP spot ETF applications, covering the full spectrum from traditional asset management (Franklin Templeton) to crypto-native institutions (Grayscale). This phenomenon of 'multiple institutions positioning' is essentially a collective anticipation of market demand for the XRP ETF—competition among institutions will not only drive product design optimization (such as fee reductions and enhanced liquidity mechanisms) but also expand the market awareness of the XRP ETF through joint marketing, paving the way for subsequent capital inflows.
2. SEC ruling timeline clarified: October becomes a 'critical window period.'
The SEC has clearly concentrated the ruling dates for multiple XRP ETF applications in October:
October 19: Applications from institutions like 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, CoinShares, and Canary Capital;
October 24: WisdomTree application (submitted through CBOE BZX exchange).
From historical experience, SEC rulings on crypto ETFs are often concentrated around deadlines (e.g., the ETH ETF was approved 3 days before the deadline), and XRP has now resolved core regulatory disputes through the 'settlement between Ripple and SEC' (after the settlement in July 2023, XRP was deemed 'not a security'), significantly lower regulatory obstacles than before the launch of BTC and ETH ETFs—this implies that the probability of approval in October now possesses 'higher certainty.'
3. Futures ETF has validated demand: $800 million in funding laid the groundwork, and the spot ETF will release 'suppressed demand.'
Currently, XRP futures-based ETFs have attracted over $800 million in capital inflows, and the open contracts in futures continue to rise—this indicates that the market's demand for compliant investment in XRP has been partially released through futures channels. However, futures ETFs have issues such as 'rollover costs' and 'tracking errors,' and the launch of spot ETFs will perfectly accommodate this 'suppressed demand.' Dom Kwok estimates that if the spot ETF is approved, the mere migration of $800 million from the futures ETF plus new retail capital could drive daily inflows exceeding $1 billion, and if institutional allocation demand is added, the scale could exceed $2 billion, setting a record for daily inflows into crypto ETFs.
3. Risk warning: Don't overlook the 'black swan' and short-term volatility risks.
Although the long-term logic is positive, before the ruling in October, two types of risks should be monitored to avoid 'blind optimism.'
1. The 'uncertainty after the SEC ruling.'
Although XRP has resolved core regulatory disputes, the SEC may still delay the ruling again citing 'market manipulation risk' and 'inadequate investor protection mechanisms' (historically, both BTC and ETH ETFs have experienced multiple delays). If there is a 'further delay' in October, it could trigger a short-term market sentiment correction, and XRP's price may face a 10%-15% fluctuation— the 'ruling results' should be the core basis for position adjustments, rather than preemptively overextending positive expectations.
2. Risk of 'capital concentration realization' after approval.
If the XRP ETF is approved and there is a short-term concentrated capital inflow (e.g., exceeding $1.5 billion in one day), it may lead to a rapid increase in XRP prices (e.g., breaking above $1), but subsequently, institutions may experience 'profit-taking' selling pressure (especially from funds that positioned through futures ETFs earlier). This 'spike and retreat' volatility should be anticipated in advance, and it is recommended that investors avoid 'chasing highs' after the ETF approval, waiting for prices to pull back to the $0.8-$0.9 range before gradually positioning.
3. Macroeconomic environment's 'liquidity constraints.'
The capital inflow scale of the XRP ETF is still affected by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy—if in October the Fed signals 'rate cuts not meeting expectations' or U.S. inflation data rebounds, it may put overall pressure on risk assets, and the capital inflow scale of the XRP ETF will also be impacted. The 'September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting' and 'October U.S. CPI data' should be regarded as important references; if the macro environment tightens, expectations for capital inflow scale should be reduced.
4. Conclusion and operational recommendations: October becomes a 'strategic window period,' with strategies formulated based on different scenarios.
The October ruling on the XRP ETF is not only a 'key node' for XRP as a single asset but also an important sign of the crypto market shifting from 'BTC/ETH dual-core driving' to 'multiple assets flourishing'— its potential capital inflow scale may reshape the capital structure of the crypto market and drive the altcoin sector into a 'compliance-driven market.'
1. Pre-ruling (current - mid-October): Low position trial and error, focus on 'applicant institution dynamics.'
Position strategy: If currently holding XRP, maintain a position of 30-50%, setting a stop-loss at $0.55 (corresponding to recent support levels); if not holding, gradually build a position in the $0.6-$0.65 range, with a position not exceeding 20%, to avoid being fully invested too early.
Key tracking: The 'roadshow dynamics' of institutions like Grayscale and Franklin Templeton (if institutions begin to promote the XRP ETF to channels, the probability of approval will further increase), and updates from the SEC's official website regarding ruling documents.
2. Post-ruling (late October): Responding based on circumstances.
If approved: Avoid chasing highs in the short term, wait for XRP prices to pull back to the $0.8-$0.9 range; if ETF funds continue to flow in (e.g., net inflows exceeding $500 million for three consecutive days), gradually increase the position to 50%;
If delayed/refused: Cut losses decisively and wait for the next ruling window (usually 30-60 days), during which to shift to more 'certain' assets like BTC and ETH.
3. Long-term perspective: The 'ecological linkage effect' of the XRP ETF.
If the XRP ETF is approved, it will not only benefit XRP itself but also drive compliant applications within its ecosystem (such as the RLUSD stablecoin and Ripple's cross-border payment network). It is recommended to pay long-term attention to the 'institution-level application progress' within the XRP ecosystem—this is key to determining whether XRP can shift from 'trading target' to 'practical asset' and is crucial for deciding whether ETF funds can 'remain long-term.'
In summary, whether the XRP ETF can trigger the 'largest capital inflow in crypto history' depends on the SEC's decision in October, which is a core variable. However, the current 'demand-side matching + supply-side scale + reduced regulatory obstacles' threefold logic is already in place. Investors need to find a balance between 'risk control' and 'opportunity grasping,' using October as a strategic window to formulate differentiated operational strategies. Pay attention to Ku Zong and continue to monitor ETH's developments.
