Keep an eye on this, folks! Tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time), the US will announce the latest initial jobless claims! The expectation is 230,000, with a previous value of 235,000. This data is directly tied to the hot or cold state of the US job market and is a barometer for Federal Reserve policy!
Why does it affect the crypto market?
Remember the chain: Economic data → Federal Reserve's attitude → Capital flow → Cryptocurrency volatility!
Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has soared to 88.7%! If tonight's data exceeds expectations (more than 235,000), it indicates economic cooling, and expectations for rate cuts will become even stronger, leading to a weaker dollar, which may drive capital into Bitcoin; if the data is better than expected (less than 230,000), expectations for rate cuts will cool down, and short-term volatility is inevitable!
Where are the opportunities?
Increased volatility: Within one hour after the data is released, $BTC and mainstream coins are likely to experience severe fluctuations. Short-term traders can focus on 15-minute candlesticks; enter and exit quickly, don't get attached! The mid-term logic remains unchanged: high expectations for interest rate cuts (over 88%), still favorable for the crypto market in the medium to long term! A sharp drop can be seen as a chance to accumulate in batches. Sentiment boost: Market sentiment is bullish; if the data supports it, it can easily ignite a rebound, but be sure to set stop-loss orders to prevent spikes!
Guide for the veterans
Newbie: Watch more and act less! Avoid opening high-leverage contracts before and after data releases to prevent liquidation!
Veteran: You can place breakout orders (for example, buying if BTC breaks 64,000 and selling if it falls below 62,000), keep your position under 5%! For those accumulating coins: Just relax and ignore the fluctuations! A downturn is just a discount on your faith!
The bank president's final reminder
Data is just a catalyst for the market; the core still relies on the big trends and market sentiment! Stay rational and don't panic. Those who are steady should wait until the direction is clear before taking action. Tonight, let's discuss real-time interpretations in the comments!
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