$SOL $
Eric Balchunas – a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg – has clarified misconceptions related to the potential demand for the XRP ETF. He emphasized that Bloomberg analysts have never claimed that there is 'no demand' for this product.
Bloomberg: Not 'no demand' for XRP
According to Balchunas, the core issue lies in the comparative correlation with Bitcoin – the digital asset that has been and continues to be at the center of the cryptocurrency ETF ecosystem. Bitcoin is not only the most liquid coin but also the asset that major institutions view as the 'benchmark' for the entire sector. Therefore, any ETF based on altcoins like XRP, ETH, or SOL will struggle to attract capital like Bitcoin.
He noted that the 'natural' level of interest from investors will decrease with the distance a asset moves away from Bitcoin, both in terms of market capitalization and wide acceptance. In other words, Bitcoin remains the first gateway for institutional capital to access the crypto market, while altcoins – including XRP – will require more time and practical data to convince investors.
However, Balchunas also emphasizes an important point: 'less' does not mean 'no demand'. On the contrary, recent market data is showing a different picture – that demand for the XRP ETF is being underestimated. The explosion of open interest in XRP futures on CME, along with the rapid growth of futures-based XRP ETFs, demonstrates that institutional capital flows are not solely focused on Bitcoin but are also beginning to look for high liquidity and popular alternatives like XRP.
This raises an interesting argument: if the spot XRP ETF is approved, the capital inflow may not be 'huge' like Bitcoin, but significant enough to create a sustainable market that attracts the attention of institutional investors in the next phase of digital asset adoption.
Sign of increasingly clear demand
Balchunas's clarifications come in the context of recent market data showing an increasing level of interest in XRP, contrasting with previous skepticism.
One of the most prominent indicators comes from CME Group – the largest derivatives exchange in the world. According to published data, managed XRP futures contracts have surpassed 1 billion USD in open interest (OI) in less than four months since listing. This is not only an impressive figure but also a record for the fastest growth rate in the entire history of crypto derivatives products on CME. This proves that XRP is not only of interest to retail traders but is also attracting increasingly strong participation from institutional investors who prioritize tightly regulated financial instruments.
Alongside this, XRP ETFs based on futures contracts are also recording explosive growth, with total assets (AUM) exceeding 800 million USD in a short period. This figure is particularly important as it reflects that institutional capital flows are not only limited to small-scale testing but have begun to allocate significant capital to XRP.
Nate Geraci – President of ETF Store – believes that this data has overturned previous cautious perspectives. He notes that the institutional demand for products related to XRP is much stronger than anticipated. According to Geraci, the unexpected growth in both the futures market and derivative ETFs is laying the groundwork for a scenario in which a spot XRP ETF, if approved, could become one of the most attractive altcoin ETF products on the market.
At a macro level, these signals also contribute to reinforcing the argument that the institutional market is gradually shifting from Bitcoin to high liquidity alternative assets with large user communities, in which XRP emerges as a leading candidate due to its increasingly clear legal standing and long-standing popularity in the global payment ecosystem.
Approval probability: Very high in 2025
According to the latest assessment, Bloomberg analysts maintain the view that the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot XRP ETF in 2025 is 'extremely high'. This is not only a predictive statement but is also based on a series of legal and market signals indicating that XRP meets many important conditions to become the next candidate after Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This confidence is also clearly reflected on Polymarket – the decentralized prediction platform where investors have financial incentives to bet according to their expectations. Currently, the odds of the XRP ETF being approved before the end of 2025 stand at 82%, a figure that reflects a strong consensus in the investment community that approval is only a matter of time.
The debate surrounding the XRP ETF is not only related to the coin itself but also reflects a macro trend in the digital asset market:
Bitcoin ETFs still occupy a central position, with a dominant advantage in capital size, acceptance level, and the role of 'underlying asset' for the entire industry.
However, the emergence of altcoin ETFs like Ethereum and the potential of XRP is proving that institutional investors are no longer limited to Bitcoin. Instead, they are increasingly interested in diversifying their portfolios and seeking superior growth opportunities among tokens with high liquidity, clear legal frameworks, and practical applications.
Potential impact if the spot XRP ETF is approved
If the spot XRP ETF is officially greenlit by the SEC, this event will not only mark the launch of a new financial product but could also become one of the most watched debuts in the history of the digital asset market.
1. Regarding the market
A listed XRP ETF will open a direct door for institutional capital to participate in XRP without having to directly face the self-custody risks of tokens. When pension funds, asset management companies, and investment banks have a transparent, legally compliant access channel, the capital inflow into XRP could significantly increase. This will not only enhance liquidity but also help stabilize price volatility, bringing XRP closer to the role of a strategic asset in a diversified investment portfolio.
2. Regarding the industry
The approval of the XRP ETF will also be seen as a significant milestone in the process of mainstreaming digital assets. After Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP will represent the group of altcoins recognized by the SEC as qualified to participate in the ETF market. This not only elevates XRP but also sets a positive precedent for other major altcoins like Solana, Cardano, or Polygon to have the opportunity to enter the 'institutional playground', contributing to the expansion of the entire crypto ETF ecosystem.
3. In terms of psychology and perception
Equally important, the approval of the XRP ETF will send a strong signal that crypto is no longer a short-term speculative phenomenon. Instead, digital assets are gradually becoming a legitimate asset class, recognized within the global financial structure. This could boost confidence from both institutional and individual investors, while also increasing pressure on other regulatory bodies worldwide to establish clearer and more transparent legal frameworks for the entire industry.