In August, BNB stood out as one of the few large-cap cryptocurrencies that maintained its performance despite market corrections. Binance Coin just reached a new historical peak at 899 USD, raising its three-month profit to nearly 30% and its annual yield exceeding 61%.
At the time of reporting, BNB is trading around 865 USD, up more than 4% from last month and 1.7% in the past week. This steady strength continues to bolster investor confidence, but technical indicators and on-chain data suggest that the next move towards the 1,000 USD mark will largely depend on how the market reacts to a key 'price wall'.
The NUPL indicator of short-term investors reveals that profit margins are shrinking.
One of the important indicators reflecting the price momentum of BNB is the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) – or the net unrealized profit/loss margin of short-term investors. This index measures the profit or loss level of investors holding BNB for less than 155 days, compared to the initial purchase price.
At the peak on August 22, when BNB hit 899 USD, the short-term NUPL reached 0.16, indicating that most investors were still in profit. However, just a few days later, on August 27, this index dropped to 0.11, even though the price of BNB only fell about 5%, to 855 USD.
This divergence shows that the profit margins of new investors are shrinking much faster than price movements. In other words, the number of traders making significant profits is decreasing, thus reducing profit-taking pressure in the market. This phenomenon often brings stability, as selling pressure eases while buyers continue to accumulate.
Hidden divergence shows the strength of buyers.
Another notable signal comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) – a momentum measurement tool that reflects buying and selling pressure on a scale of 0–100.
During the period from August 19 to 25, BNB continuously formed higher lows, but the RSI recorded lower lows. This phenomenon is called 'hidden bullish divergence'. It reflects a subtle relationship between buyers and sellers: despite declining momentum, early investors still participate, preventing the price from returning to deeper lows.
Hidden bullish divergence often occurs in strong uptrends, when sellers try to push prices down but encounter new buying pressure. With BNB, this signal indicates that the recent consolidation phase is not a sign of exhaustion, but a precursor to the potential continuation of the uptrend.
The heatmap and resistance levels define the next move of BNB.
The next move of Binance Coin (BNB) will heavily depend on key resistance zones. The heatmap of cost price shows points where large volumes of BNB were last purchased, revealing areas where sellers may flood the market.
Both the heatmap and price movements indicate a strong 'wall' around 862–871 USD. According to data from Glassnode, there are 23,737 BNB concentrated between 862–864 USD, along with an additional 6,462 BNB located at 869–871 USD. This dense supply cluster explains why the price of BNB has repeatedly failed to break through and close above these levels.
Currently, the price fluctuates in the range of 829–869 USD, and history shows that every time it hits these resistance levels, it faces strong reactions from sellers. However, if a daily candle closes clearly above 869 USD, it will confirm a breakout, paving the way towards the crucial 1,000 USD mark – BNB's strategic target.
Conversely, only when the price drops below 829 USD does the short-term outlook turn negative.