After Powell said on the 22nd that interest rates might be cut, ETH rose more than 16% that day, not only breaking the old high of 4868 in 2021, but also冲到4887
of the historical high. BTC also rose with ETH, from 111,000 to around 117,000. ETH's ETF also had a net inflow of 2.88
billion US dollars. This wave of capital enthusiasm has not been seen for a long time.
Later, ETH hit a new high of 4956 again on the 24th, and then回调to about 4300. Don't panic, this is just a normal adjustment:
On the one hand, the short-term gains have been too much, and the indicators need to be corrected. On the day of the new high, many people could be seen selling after making a profit (long-term rise and fall);
On the other hand, institutions are still snapping up chips: a whale sold 3986 BTC for ETH, Sharplink also added 56,000 ETH, and many institutions have raised their expectations for ETH. There will also be technical upgrades in the fourth quarter, and the fundamentals are still there.
Ethereum staking data shows that selling and buying have surged. The scale of unstaking queues has repeatedly hit new highs, suggesting increasing selling pressure; the scale of staking queues is growing faster, showing that buying is stronger. The two sides are confronting each other, and it is difficult to predict the short-term winner. The key is to see who falls back first.
Speaking of which, as long as ETH stays above 4000 now, and everyone gets used to this price like they accept 100,000+ BTC, it will slowly rise later and will eventually try the 5000 mark.
I found that retail investors are smarter in this cycle
Most of those who play BTC are old韭菜, and they are good at selling high and buying low. In the past 30 days, high-net-worth groups with 1-10 BTC have increased their holdings by 7,425, and retail investors with less than 1 BTC have increased their holdings by 19,556. They shout "The bear is coming" but don't they all think it hasn't fallen enough? Why are they still increasing their positions?
Say no, but your body is very honest... You guys aren't deliberately shouting empty while secretly buying the dip, are you!
ETH can't catch up? Funds start to rotate
Many funds missed
ETH's rise, so they turned to buy other mainstream coins: SOL is very resistant to下跌, and the part that fell on the 25th has all risen back, now around 209, the price is not high; focus on September-October, in addition to
ETH's staking ETF, there are also many spot ETFs of mainstream coins that may be approved. You can take a look at these mainstream coins that have applied for ETFs.
Some people say that the "bull market is over" when they see the回调these two days, but two judgments remain unchanged:
1. Mainstream coins are still rising in turn, funds have not left the market, and the market has not ended;
2. The proportion of ETH is getting higher and higher, and the potential of altcoins will be greater in the future.
Altcoins: Two lines of effort, with the AI sector taking over
Altcoins are going exactly as predicted. First, two lines爆拉, and then the AI sector topped up:
The first line (primary and a half market): The BSC small MEME (with a market value of 100-200) on BN ALPHA has gone crazy. BUBB has risen 6 times in 3 days, and BNBXBT and TAT have risen 1 time in a day, which has revitalized the BSC sector;
The second line (secondary market): BIO and MEME engage in staking + launch, BIO rises 5 times, MEME rises 1 time;
As soon as these two lines stopped, the AI sector took over: NMR released good news and rose 2 times, and old altcoins RLC and LPT also followed suit, rising more than 50%. This shows that when ETH is trading sideways, altcoins start to rebound in turn, which is a good thing.
However, the altcoin rebound will not continue to rise, but when the second stage回调, high-quality altcoins are a good opportunity; if you choose the right one, the third stage may have several times or even 10 times the increase.
Operation suggestion: Sell the principal when it rises by 50% or doubles, keep the profit to continue earning, and then ambush the next one.
Key message: 3 important signals
1. Stablecoins are secretly increasing: the total market value has broken 280 billion US dollars, a new high. Tether and Circle have created 8.75 billion US dollars in stablecoins in the past month (if pegged 1:1, it means 8.75 billion more funds have entered the circle), and most of them are on ETH, which is a two-way benefit for ETH;
2. SEC paves the way for compliance: On September 18th, a roundtable meeting was held, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Nasdaq all attending to discuss how to improve the transaction penetration ban - it is obvious that they want to make the market more compliant, and the institutions only need to nod;
3. Altcoin status quo: SAND is an example! Sandbox founder leaves, lays off 50% of employees, stops doing the metaverse and changes direction, SAND falls from 8 to 0.2 (a drop of 40 times), trades sideways for 5 months, will not rise now but will move later. In fact, most altcoins have to find new directions, support teams, and protect their market value, so they have to拉盘. They lack money and attention, so they can only wait for the concept to become popular and蹭 a wave; those that can stay on BN and not be delisted are considered high-quality altcoins.
On-chain
The primary market is sluggish, the opportunities to get rich overnight have plummeted, and the era of making money easily is over. Projects that can reach 1M are considered big money, which is a nightmare for investors who only play in the secondary market and do not touch the internal market. Recently, 1M entering the secondary market is basically trapped. The market ceiling is 1-2M, and it is a consensus among internal market players to ship collectively at this price.
