"The K-line shrinks to a single line, it’s either a surge or the eve of a plunge!"
This morning, I saw BTC oscillating around 113200, resembling a "heartbeat graph", and I immediately sent a warning to the community. The current market feels like the calm sea before a storm, so tranquil that it makes one anxious.
From the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the extreme, and this kind of "tight band market" usually signifies an imminent direction choice. The focus is on three key levels: 114000 resistance acts like a ceiling, 112500 is the battleground midpoint between bulls and bears, and 111000 is a line that must not be broken. The MACD’s yellow and white lines are "holding their breath" above the 0 axis, with a DIF value of 422 looking decent, but the MACD histogram at 292 clearly shows insufficient momentum, like a rocket fuel leak—easy to launch but hard to maintain.
The most critical issue is the trading volume! Currently, the hourly volume is only 253, which is a direct halving compared to the 5-day average of 484. This reminds me of the sideways plunge in January 2024—during that time, the volume continued to shrink, large holders secretly offloading, and a final huge bearish candle pierced through the support level, resulting in an 8% drop within 24 hours. Now, on-chain data shows an increase in transfer frequency from whale addresses, and US ETF funds have seen a net outflow for three consecutive days, combined with tonight’s hawkish speech from Federal Reserve officials, indicating considerable short-term pullback pressure.
Personal operational suggestions:
1. Absolutely do not open new positions around the current price of 113200, better to miss out than to make a mistake.
2. If it breaks below 112500, reduce positions by 50%, and liquidate all if it breaks 111000.
3. A breakout above 114000 with increased volume can be chased for gains.
Tonight at 21:30, the speech from Federal Reserve officials may act as a market catalyst, and I will keep the community updated on whale movements in real time.
The longer the sideways movement, the more violent the fluctuations, so prepare your ammunition and wait for direction to choose; this is more important than blind trading!
If you’re unsure about the specific points, you can follow @财月女神 .
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