Core conclusion: Ceasefire agreement + interest rate cut expectations ignite the dual engines for market reversal in the cryptocurrency space!
On August 27, China’s representative Geng Shuang urgently called on the UN, urging Israel to immediately stop military actions in Gaza, as the conflict has persisted for nearly 700 days. Behind this major power intervention, two key opportunities for the cryptocurrency market are hidden: the return of hot money to the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate cut in September, a historic market trend is about to explode!
I. How will the ceasefire signal rewrite the script of the cryptocurrency circle?
History repeats: Ceasefire = precursor to surge
On the day of the temporary ceasefire between Israel and Palestine in November 2023, the BTC premium in Middle Eastern OTC markets plummeted from 8.2% to 2.1%, indicating a clear withdrawal of funds from conflict areas. With strong pressure from China, the probability of a ceasefire has skyrocketed, and safe-haven funds from Egypt, Turkey, and other regions may quickly flow back into mainstream coins!
Institutional Reallocation: ETH becomes the new safe haven
Recent on-chain data shows: After a giant whale sold 24,000 BTC (about $2.8 billion), they significantly bought and staked ETH, driving Ethereum's daily increase to 1.82%, surpassing $4600. Institutions are shifting from Bitcoin to the Ethereum ecosystem to build momentum for the next bull market!
II. New logic in the cryptocurrency circle regarding geopolitical conflicts: From panic to opportunity
ETFs become 'volatility stabilizers'
In 2022, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war saw BTC soar 20% in a single day; however, in June 2025, following Israel's airstrikes on Iran, BTC's volatility was only ±3%, primarily due to the average daily trading volume of spot ETFs accounting for 55% (such as BlackRock's net inflow of $420 million in one day), with institutional funds hedging against retail panic.
War ignites on-chain necessities
Cryptocurrency applications in conflict areas have become essential tracks:
Gaza residents use Bitcoin mining machines to maintain communication networks; Iranian oil merchants use mixers to bypass sanctions and transfer assets; 6.5% of Ukraine's early international aid comes from crypto donations.
These 'survival-level demands' are the true counter-cyclical assets!
III. Fed Rate Cut: September will trigger an epic market trend!
Interest rate cut probability skyrockets, ETH leads the rise
After Powell released dovish signals at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut soared from 75% to 87% (confirmed by major banks like Barclays and NatWest). ETH responded with a rise, but note: ETH is currently fluctuating around $4500, not yet reaching a historical high (previously rumored $4888 was incorrect).
Three essential actions to take before an interest rate cut
Leveraged Clean: Last week, the entire network saw liquidations of $900 million, with long positions accounting for over 80%; Transition to ETH Ecosystem: Layer 2 and Restaking tracks favored by institutions; Hoarding Stablecoins: USDT/USDC is the 'nuclear weapon' for bottoming after interest rate cuts.
Fuchi Tactical Strategy: Three Steps to Lock in Ceasefire Bonuses
Short-term: Before the ceasefire agreement is signed, accumulate ETH on dips (support level at $4400); Medium-term: Heavily stake ETH and ecosystem projects before the September rate cut materializes; Long-term: Prepare for war-related infrastructure (privacy protocols, censorship-resistant public chains).
Iron Law of the Cryptocurrency Circle:
When the smoke clears, smart money has already positioned itself!
President Fuchi's team specializes in serving ambitious mavericks! Follow President Fuchi as he guides you through the market obstacles.
