Regarding whether Bitcoin will be opened up in mainland China in the future, there is currently no clear answer. However, from the market situation and policy logic, the possibility of comprehensive opening in the short term is extremely low, while long-term adjustments may be closely related to balancing 'guiding capital flows' and 'preventing financial risks.'
After all, current domestic investment channels are still limited, and the issue of capital outflow is becoming increasingly prominent. If in the future it is possible to incorporate it into a regulatory framework through compliant paths (such as a Bitcoin ETF similar to overseas), it might be a potential direction that balances risk and demand. However, the premise of all this is always 'not to trigger systemic financial risks.'
However, before discussing whether to open up or not, one should see the essence of the cryptocurrency circle clearly: this is a market where 'wealth is highly concentrated, and risks far outweigh opportunities.' 99.99% of projects will ultimately go to zero; the few that can survive through cycles are merely Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and a handful of others. Many people only see the frenzy of altcoins 'rising several times' in a bull market but overlook their brutal 'drop of 90%' in a bear market—last round's LUNA went to zero, leaving countless people with nothing; this round's ordi, sats, trump coins have also dropped to the point of being ignored. Additionally, with the 'clear-cut harvesting' of high-leverage contracts, ordinary retail investors, with a little carelessness, will become the objects to be devoured.
The underlying logic of the cryptocurrency circle: wealth flows from the majority to the minority.
The operating model of the cryptocurrency circle is actually very simple and brutal: it is essentially a 'highly efficient wealth transfer game.' Countless retail investors' funds will ultimately be gathered into the hands of a few project parties, large institutions, or seasoned traders through altcoin speculation, contract liquidations, and project runaways. It is no exaggeration to say that this is one of the fields with the 'highest wealth transfer efficiency' in financial history.
Looking back at the time when the country comprehensively blocked cryptocurrency trading, it is actually a protection for most people. If it weren't for timely policies to 'cut off the entry points,' the private wealth accumulated in China over decades of reform and opening up could have been massively devoured by the high-risk games of the cryptocurrency circle—after all, for ordinary investors, resisting the temptation of 'getting rich overnight' is too difficult, while the ability to identify 'fraudulent projects' is too weak.
Why are retail investors always 'cut'? The root cause lies in 'wanting to take shortcuts.'
Many retail investors always feel 'they can avoid risks and catch hundred-fold coins,' but the reality is that they often can't avoid two pitfalls:
Firstly, 'unwilling to hold mainstream coins for the long term.' Clearly knowing that mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are more stable, they always feel that 'the increase is slow' and turn to chase those altcoins that 'claim to rise tenfold.' What’s the result? The surging of altcoins is often 'pulling up and cutting leeks'; by the time retail investors chase in, the project parties have long cashed out, leaving only a mess behind.
Secondly, 'superstitious about high leverage.' Always thinking of 'using small funds to leverage large returns,' opening 100x leverage contracts, but forgetting that leverage is a 'double-edged sword.' A 1% increase can earn 100%, but a 1% drop can lead to liquidation. With slight market fluctuations, retail investors' principal can instantly go to zero, while institutions can utilize this point to 'pin' (short-term severe fluctuations) and harvest retail investors.
The 'good and evil' of the cryptocurrency circle: the essential difference between mainstream coins and altcoins.
If there is 'good' in the cryptocurrency circle, it must be mainstream coins like Bitcoin: with a fixed total supply (Bitcoin's total supply is 21 million), there is no 'unlimited issuance,' and the blockchain is transparent and traceable; no one can manipulate behind the scenes. Holding such assets long-term will at least not be 'diluted by inflation' and can even yield reasonable returns over cycles. This is the true tool that can help people accumulate wealth.
The 'evil' of the cryptocurrency circle is concentrated in altcoins: most altcoins have no practical application scenarios, and project parties can arbitrarily 'issue more tokens,' just like the Federal Reserve printing money without limits, which will ultimately dilute the wealth of early holders cleanly. Ironically, many altcoins still claim to be 'blockchain innovation' and 'Web3 revolution,' but in essence, they are no different from 'pyramid schemes' and 'fraud,' much like some religions whose original intention was to awaken people but later evolved into tools for collecting wealth, staining the original ideals.
For ordinary investors, 'caution' is always the first principle.
Even if there is a possibility of compliance for Bitcoin in mainland China in the future, ordinary investors should remain clear-headed: the cryptocurrency market has never been a 'sure-win market'; its high returns come with risks that ordinary people find hard to bear.
Instead of entangling over 'whether to open in the future,' it is better to think clearly: can you identify the authenticity of the project? Can you bear the risk of losing your principal? Do you have enough discipline to control your positions and leverage? If the answer is 'no' to all, then even if the market opens, it is best to stay away; after all, preserving your principal is more important than anything.
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