#SOL has entered the 'golden time slot', next we focus on the macro and news aspects
#Solana (SOL) currently at $197 needs to be analyzed in conjunction with technical indicators, on-chain data, ecosystem, and macro environment:
1. Technical Aspects
$180-185 is the key support level; if it breaks or dips to $170; the upper resistance at $195-200 is strong, and if it breaks out with volume, it may aim for $210. Indicators like RSI and MACD show that bearish momentum is weakening, and open contracts remain high, indicating that volatility may continue to increase.
2. On-chain and Capital Aspects
Whales have been continuously increasing their holdings in the $184 range, while retail investors are reducing their positions. Exchange balances are diverging, with Binance decreasing and Coinbase increasing. Eco-lockups and USDC issuance are reaching new highs, and the entry of BlackRock fund brings in incremental capital.
3. Ecosystem and Narrative
RWA has become a driving force, with institutions like CMB International and BlackRock implementing applications, and technological innovations being adopted by multiple projects. The approval for the SOL spot ETF may land in mid-October, expected to bring in billions of dollars in capital inflow.
4. Macro and Regulatory
The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 90%, which is favorable for risk assets, but caution is needed as nearly 8 million tokens will be unlocked in September. The Solana Foundation has reached a compliance framework with the SEC, alleviating regulatory risks somewhat.
5. Operational Strategy
Core spot positions should rely on the $180 support to hold, targeting $250, with the option to stake for returns. For short-term operations, focus on the range of $185-200, and if it breaks, look for $210. Options can be used for hedging. If it breaks $200 before the unlocking, consider partially reducing positions.
SOL is currently in a $180-200 oscillation range in the short term, but in the medium to long term benefits from RWA and ETF capital flows, the overall trend still leans upward. The approach focuses on controlling positions and buying on dips, with key attention on non-farm payroll, ETF approval, and unlocking as three major nodes.
