Anndy Lian
Markets at a crossroads: Trump’s Fed clash, Powell’s pivot, and global ripple effects
On this late summer day in 2025, financial markets around the world display a mix of caution and optimism as investors digest a flurry of economic data, geopolitical tensions, and corporate developments. The overarching narrative centres on anticipation for key upcoming events like Nvidia’s earnings report and the personal consumption expenditures inflation figures, which could sway Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.
At the same time, President Donald Trump’s bold move to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook injects fresh uncertainty into the mix, highlighting ongoing frictions between the White House and the central bank. Stocks in the United States closed lower yesterday, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.3 per cent to around 6,439, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 349 points to finish at approximately 44,150, and the Nasdaq 100 declining 0.4 per cent amid sector rotations that hit consumer staples, health care, and utilities hardest.
This pullback follows a strong rally last week, driven by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he signalled potential rate cuts as early as September. Traders now price in an 86 per cent likelihood of such a move, reflecting hopes that lower borrowing costs will bolster economic growth amid signs of cooling inflation.
Trump’s move against the Fed
Turning to the macroeconomic landscape, Trump’s announcement yesterday afternoon marks a significant escalation in his longstanding feud with the Federal Reserve over monetary policy. He cited allegations of mortgage fraud against Cook, a claim that has drawn sharp rebukes from Democrats and raised questions about the independence of the central bank. Cook, for her part, quickly responded that she intends to continue her duties, setting the stage for potential legal battles.
This development comes at a delicate time, as the Fed navigates dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment. Experts view the action as an attempt by Trump to exert more influence over interest rate decisions, particularly after he has repeatedly criticised the Fed for not cutting rates aggressively enough to support his economic agenda.
The president posted the removal letter on his Truth Social account, accusing Cook of deceitful conduct in financial matters and expressing a lack of confidence in her ability to serve. While markets initially shrugged off the news, with the dollar paring some losses, the incident underscores broader concerns about policy interference that could erode investor trust in the institution responsible for steering the world’s largest economy.
Economic indicators and housing trends
Recent economic indicators paint a picture of an economy that remains resilient but shows pockets of weakness. New single-family home sales in July slipped 0.6 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 652,000 units, which beat economists’ expectations of 630,000 but represented a slowdown from June’s revised 4.1 per cent gain.
The median sales price dropped to US$403,800, down 5.9 per cent year-over-year, suggesting builders are offering incentives like price cuts and mortgage rate buydowns to attract buyers in a high-interest environment. This data aligns with broader housing market trends, where affordability challenges persist despite a gradual easing in mortgage rates.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for August revealed a dip in activity, with the general business activity index falling to -1.8 from 0.9 in July, indicating a mild contraction in the sector. Production slowed to 15.3 from 21.3, though it stayed above long-term averages, and new orders turned positive at 5.8 for the first time since January.
Employment held steady at 8.8, with one in five firms adding staff while 11 per cent reduced headcounts. Capacity utilisation and shipments provided some bright spots, with the latter surging to a three-year high of 14.2. These figures highlight regional disparities, as Texas grapples with energy sector fluctuations and supply chain issues, yet overall sentiment points to cautious optimism for future growth.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged lower to -0.19 in July from -0.18 in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of below-trend economic activity. Only one of the four broad categories, production worsened, while three others continued to drag on the index, underscoring persistent headwinds in employment, sales, and personal consumption.
This subpar performance reinforces the narrative of a cooling economy, which bolsters the case for Fed rate cuts but also raises flags about potential recession risks if growth stalls further. Investors closely monitor these metrics, as they influence expectations for monetary policy adjustments that could ripple through asset classes.
Regional markets: US, Europe, and Asia
In equities, European markets mirrored the US downturn yesterday, with the STOXX Europe 50 falling 0.8 per cent to 5,444 and the broader STOXX 600 declining 0.5 per cent to 559. Banks bore the brunt of the losses, as investors reassessed rate-cut probabilities following Powell’s remarks.
Notable movers included BBVA down two per cent, BNP Paribas dropping 3.5 per cent, and UniCredit slipping 0.4 per cent after it converted its stake in Commerzbank to shares. On the positive side, JDE Peet’s soared 17.5 per cent amid a 15.7 billion euro takeover bid by Keurig Dr Pepper.
In comparison, Puma climbed 16 per cent on speculation of a potential acquisition by the Pinault family. These corporate deals inject some buoyancy, but the overall retreat reflects trimmed bets on aggressive Fed easing, even as European Central Bank officials hint at their own policy shifts.
Asian markets provided a counterpoint, with substantial gains in Hong Kong and mainland China yesterday. The Hang Seng Index surged 1.9 per cent to 25,830, its highest level since October 2021, fuelled by US rate-cut hopes and fresh stimulus from Beijing. The People’s Bank of China injected a net 465.7 billion yuan into the system, the largest daily addition since July, boosting liquidity and propelling tech stocks higher.
The Hang Seng Tech Index rose three per cent ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, with standout performers like KE Holdings up 5.6 per cent, Galaxy Entertainment gaining 5.3 per cent, Lenovo advancing 3.9 per cent, Meituan climbing three per cent, and Tencent rising 2.4 per cent. Consumer, property, and financial sectors also benefited from Shanghai’s decision to scrap property taxes for first-time homebuyers.
In China, the Shanghai Composite climbed 1.51 per cent to 3,884, a 10-year high, while the Shenzhen Component gained 2.26 per cent to 12,441. This rally stems from easing US-China trade tensions, policy support expectations, and positive spillover from Wall Street’s recent surge.
Investors now await the upcoming purchasing managers’ index and industrial profit data for further clues on China’s recovery trajectory. Top gainers included Cambricon up 11.4 per cent, China Northern Rare Earth advancing 9.9 per cent, and Hygon Information soaring 12.9 per cent.
Currencies, commodities, and fixed income
In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar staged a rebound, with the DXY index climbing to 98.20 amid broader currency fluctuations. The euro weakened against the greenback, reflecting divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and the European Central Bank.
This strength in the dollar comes despite Trump’s Fed actions, which initially pressured the currency but later saw it pare losses as gold trimmed gains. Commodities extended their upward momentum, with oil prices touching US$65 per barrel after four straight days of gains. Brent crude eased slightly today after surging nearly two per cent yesterday on concerns over Russia-Ukraine supply disruptions, but the overall trend points to tightening global inventories and geopolitical risks supporting higher prices.
In fixed income, demand for short-term US Treasuries remained robust, with three- and six-month bills attracting strong bids at recent auctions. Yields on the 10-year note hovered around 4.26 per cent last week, down modestly as investors sought safety amid equity volatility.
Crypto sector shifts and Ethereum’s momentum
The cryptocurrency sector experienced significant turbulence, with digital asset investment products recording US$1.43 billion in outflows last week, the heaviest since March, according to CoinShares. Trading volumes in exchange-traded products jumped to US$38 billion, 50 per cent above the 2025 average, reflecting heightened activity amid shifting sentiment tied to US monetary policy signals.
Early-week outflows reached US$2 billion, but inflows of US$594 million materialised later following Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech. Bitcoin suffered the most, with US$1 billion in outflows, while Ethereum saw US$440 million exit, though the latter rebounded strongly mid-week. Month-to-date, Ethereum boasts US$2.5 billion in net inflows compared to Bitcoin’s US$1 billion outflows, adjusting year-to-date figures to 26 per cent of assets under management for Ethereum versus 11 per cent for Bitcoin.
This divergence suggests institutional investors are reallocating toward Ethereum, drawn by its role in layer-two networks and growing adoption through exchange-traded funds. Altcoins showed mixed results, with XRP attracting US$25 million, Solana US$12 million, and Cronos US$4.4 million, indicating selective confidence in ecosystems with robust user bases.
Tom Lee from Bitmine highlight Ethereum’s potential, predicting prices could reach US$10,000 by year-end 2025, with upside to US$12,000-US$15,000 in bullish scenarios. Lee draws parallels to Bitcoin’s 2017 surge, emphasising Ethereum’s utility in decentralised finance and corporate treasury strategies.
He points to key support levels around US$4,300, where buyers have historically intervened, and notes that holding above US$4,067 could stabilise the asset short-term. Breaking US$5,100 might trigger a rally toward US$5,450, levels that guide strategic trading rather than impulsive moves.
Beyond speculation, Ethereum positions itself as a foundational element in digital finance, attracting hedge funds, family offices, and corporations for long-term holdings rather than quick trades. In a volatile market, Lee’s counsel emphasises patience, adherence to plans, and vigilance on price thresholds to navigate dips as buying opportunities.
Outlook: Navigating opportunity and risk
From my perspective, today’s dynamics reveal an economy at a crossroads. Trump’s intervention in the Fed risks politicising an institution designed for independence, potentially leading to market instability if it erodes global confidence in US policy.
The resilient economic data, better-than-expected home sales, and positive new orders in manufacturing suggest the foundation remains solid, supporting Powell’s case for measured rate cuts. Asian gains underscore how interconnected global markets have become, with China’s stimulus providing a buffer against US uncertainties.
In crypto, the shift toward Ethereum signals maturing investor preferences, favoring utility over pure store-of-value narratives like Bitcoin’s “digital gold.” Overall, while short-term volatility looms with Nvidia’s report and PCE data, the broader outlook favours growth if policymakers avoid missteps.
Investors who focus on fundamentals over headlines stand to benefit, as these events test the durability of the post-pandemic recovery. This intricate web of factors demands careful navigation, but it also offers opportunities for those attuned to the nuances.
Source: https://e27.co/markets-at-a-crossroads-trumps-fed-clash-powells-pivot-and-global-ripple-effects-20250826/
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