Bitcoin recently reached a high of $124,500, but this peak is unlikely to mark the end of the current cycle. Notably, all 30 widely followed Bitcoin peak indicators remain neutral, suggesting further upside potential for the cryptocurrency.
The temporary decline in Bitcoin’s price is primarily a shakeout of less committed investors, while experienced holders remain confident. This pattern is typical during robust bull markets, helping to strengthen support and prepare for subsequent gains.
Key Points:
The $124.5K peak does not indicate the cycle top, as 30 peak indicators remain neutral.
Recent price drops have caused new investors to capitulate, while seasoned holders retain conviction.
Maintaining above the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) supports a path toward $150,000.
Recent data from top analysts highlights that classic Bitcoin cycle peaks correlate with several “overheating” on-chain metrics. Currently, these metrics, including the Puell Multiple and MVRV Z-Score, are in safe zones rather than extreme levels that preceded previous tops.
The Puell Multiple, an indicator showing miner revenue sustainability, is currently at 1.39, well below the danger threshold of 2.2. This suggests miners’ revenues are not excessively high, reducing risk of an imminent market top.
Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score, comparing market price versus capital inflows, remains in neutral territory, further supporting ongoing bullish sentiment.
Moreover, on-chain analysis reveals that investors holding Bitcoin for less than one month are facing average losses around -3.5% and are beginning to sell. Conversely, short-term holders who maintain positions for one to six months continue to show unrealized gains near 4.5%, indicating strong conviction in the market.
This dynamic indicates a healthy market correction, where weak hands exit and stronger hands accumulate, potentially building a solid foundation for future price advances.
Additional market data from Binance shows $70 million in Bitcoin long liquidations after the price dipped below $111,000, leading to a sharp decrease in open interest and net taker volume. This liquidation flush has structurally reset the market, removing overleveraged buyers and improving overall market health.
The coming price support levels range between $117,000 and $118,000, which may attract buying momentum if Bitcoin recovers soon. However, below $105,000, support becomes limited, potentially increasing downside risk in case of broader market weakness.
Weekly Bitcoin price charts suggest the recent 12% pullback is a typical bull market correction rather than the start of a market top. Historically, Bitcoin has faced drawdowns between 20% and 30% during its uptrends before resuming growth.
Bitcoin currently remains above the 20-week EMA, a key dynamic support indicator, near $108,000. Holding this level could propel Bitcoin toward testing its all-time highs beyond $125,500 and set the stage for a possible rally to $150,000 or above by the end of 2025.
However, a decisive breakdown below the 20-week EMA might trigger a deeper correction toward the 50-week EMA around $95,300, a historically significant support zone for Bitcoin’s local lows during market pullbacks.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk. Conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
