Bitcoin is currently stuck at the 108 support level. The technical adjustments are almost in place, and whether it rebounds or continues to fall depends on the news. This week, pay attention to two key events: Intel's earnings report on Wednesday and U.S. PCE inflation data on Friday. These two will directly determine the market sentiment. Moreover, the semiconductor sector has been particularly hot recently, with a surge in A-shares in Cambricon, and the China-U.S. chip war is intensifying, drawing all the capital in, with Intel being the focal point.
The Trump administration's actions regarding Intel are quite absurd. The original subsidies from the (chip bill) directly turned into government equity investments, with $5.7 billion in grants and $3.2 billion in other funds, totaling $8.9 billion. Purchasing 433 million shares at $20.47 each, the U.S. government became Intel's largest shareholder, pushing BlackRock to the back. Even more outrageous, Trump mentioned wanting to buy shares in Micron, Samsung, and TSMC—this doesn’t feel like America at all. It’s like China’s approach to reforming state-owned enterprises in key industries.
The market opinions on this matter are polarized: when the rumor came out on Friday, Intel's stock price rose by 5.5%, but after the official announcement on Monday, it actually fell by 1%. Optimistic people believe that the national team's intervention is a big positive, with policies supporting Intel for long-term stability; however, cautious individuals worry that too much government intervention could lead to the company's strategy being politically constrained, thus affecting performance and valuation.
The semiconductor industry has now completely become the main battlefield of U.S.-China confrontation. SoftBank's Masayoshi Son just invested $2 billion in Intel and has been frequently in contact with the new CEO, Chen Lifeng, aiming to bundle capital and manufacturing; in Japan, there are reports of TSMC's secrets being stolen, with the world on guard against technology leaks; China has directly banned the sale of high-end AI chips like H20, clearly indicating a desire to 'de-Americanize' and pursue self-reliance. In short, the U.S. and China have completely parted ways in semiconductors, each building its own supply chains, and neither side intends to rely on the other.
The 108 support level for Bitcoin is not just a technical threshold; it is also a critical point of news and macroeconomic games. If Intel's earnings report exceeds expectations on Wednesday, the sentiment in the U.S. stock market may warm up, and Bitcoin is likely to rebound; however, if the earnings report disappoints, concerns about government intervention may intensify, and a drop in Intel's stock price could collapse overall sentiment. At that point, whether the 108 support can hold becomes truly uncertain.
The market is no longer just about looking at candlesticks. The U.S. government's forced equity investment policies, the geopolitical games of the China-U.S. chip war, and the influx of capital into semiconductors—these three forces combined make the short-term trends of Bitcoin, Intel's earnings report, and U.S. inflation data potential trigger points.
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