In the crypto world, there is an old yet always valid rule—extreme situations will reverse. Currently, three things are already clear: first, interest rate cuts have indeed begun; second, the bottom cycle for altcoins has basically ended and has become a thing of the past; third, Bitcoin's current three-year cycle only has three months left, and before the end of the year, the market is bound to experience a sharp fluctuation, and there is even a possibility of a significant correction or a transition into a bear market.
But one must see clearly that previous interest rate cuts are more of an emotional catalyst, and the main players often take advantage of the situation. Think about it carefully, if at this critical moment they are still desperately pushing down the fakes, it does them no good at all. The bottom area has already been ground for half a year, a year, or even two years; those who should have cut their losses have already done so, leaving behind only diamond hands. At this point, further pushing down will only allow bottom fishers to pick up bargains. It's just like Ethereum back in the day at the $1400 position, no matter how hard they pushed it down, it wouldn't budge—retail investors neither shorted nor bought more, they simply lay flat and ignored it. Once a rally happens, the emotions are instantly ignited, and retail investors rush to buy, allowing the main players to successfully offload. Recently, many primary market projects have been soaring dozens or even hundreds of times, and this logic is behind that. The essence of a bull market is to stir emotions, allowing retail investors to buy at a high point in excitement.
The way of playing altcoins has always been simple and brutal: rallies and crashes happen unexpectedly. Because the flow of funds always follows human nature. When you find that a certain coin is being hyped all over the internet, and everyone is shouting to get on board, it’s often not far from a collapse. Opportunities always belong to those who layout in advance. Looking back three years ago, how many people shouted, 'Bitcoin is finished,' yet it became more robust; three months ago, someone said, 'Ethereum is dead,' and it was still alive; now it’s altcoins that everyone is singing about their demise—but they won’t actually die. Every significant market crash and wailing is precisely the eve of a market restart. Ethereum could stagnate for three years but could recover in two weeks; altcoins are even more extreme, able to completely reverse in two days.
So remember one thing: opportunities always lie where no one pays attention, and risks are always present when voices are loud. The most panicked moments are often the bottom; the most greedy moments are precisely the top. If you didn't get on board at the first moment the main surge started, the outcome is likely to be a cycle of repeatedly chasing highs and cutting losses. Don't always fantasize about another chance to buy the dip; that kind of deep pit market has long since ended. Right now, this sideways fluctuation is, to put it plainly, meant to wear down your patience with the chips in your hand.
The market is never about K-lines, but about human nature.
