The Market Cold Wave Behind the Asian Crypto Gala: What Expectations Lead to Emptiness
—— The Financial Essence Reconstruction of the 'Every Conference Must Drop' Curse
1. Reverse Signal at the Moment of Celebration: Capital Collective Exit
On August 25, 2025, the Tokyo WebX and Hong Kong Bitcoin Asia summits will be unveiled simultaneously. As global blockchain elites gather in the East, Bitcoin plummets 3.3% to $109,000 in 24 hours, Ethereum falls below $4,500, and mainstream cryptocurrencies generally decline over 3%.
The highly anticipated industry conference has turned into a catalyst for decline, with the grim data of 166,000 investors liquidating $840 million in a single day declaring the complete failure of the logic behind 'narrative-driven bull markets.'
2. Four-Dimensional Drivers: The Downward Pattern After Data Correction
Expectations Fall Short: Financial Backlash of Positive News
Before the conference, the market bet on regulatory easing and technological breakthroughs, pushing BTC to an all-time high of $124,500. However, the summit did not release unexpected policies, triggering a concentrated liquidation of $670 million in long positions (accounting for 80% of total liquidations), perfectly illustrating the capital game of 'buying expectations and selling reality.'
Macroeconomic Reversal: Liquidity Expectations Fluctuate Dramatically
Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Retreat: July PPI in the U.S. soared 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September dropped from 98% to 84%. Trust in policy collapses: The U.S. Treasury Department rules out the possibility of Bitcoin being included in national reserves, shattering institutional entry fantasies. Black Swan Assault: Early whales with a cost basis of less than $10 from 2011 continue to sell, creating persistent selling pressure.
Leverage Chain Explosion: The Cost of Greed
The average market leverage ratio has risen to a dangerous zone. When BTC falls below the critical level of $113,000, it triggers a chain liquidation of $840 million (with long positions accounting for 80%). The prosperous facade built on high leverage ultimately collapses under liquidity exhaustion.
Technical Cycle Resonance: Necessary Adjustment of the Bull Market
After seven consecutive monthly gains in Bitcoin, the RSI remains overbought. This deep correction is completed through an event window. Key support has shifted down to the $107,000-$108,000 range, preparing for a new round of market movement.
3. Survival Guide for Chinese Investors: Beacons in the Cold Wave
Piercing Through the Narrative Fog
When 'Favorable News from the Event' becomes a topic of street discussion, caution should be exercised for potential local tops. Historical data shows that the probability of cryptocurrency declines during industry conferences is as high as 68% (based on data from the past three years).
Embrace the Wave of Compliance
Hong Kong's Cyberport Blockchain Subsidy Program enters the substantial implementation phase. The EU MiCAR legislation is fully implemented, and compliance costs for exchanges have surged by 300%.
The Era of Policy Arbitrage Ends, Market Share of Licensed Institutions Breaks 60%
Key Risk Control Bottom Line
Leverage ratio ≤ 5 times, liquidation price must stay more than 15% away from key support. Dynamic stop loss: BTC must reduce positions to 30% if it breaks $110,000; ETH must trigger a stop loss if it falls below $4,400.
The market constantly swings between excessive optimism and panic, while cyclical laws are irreversibly like tides. The current correction resembles a heavy rain washing away dust—only after washing out floating capital can real value be seen.
Conclusion: The Ultimate Rule Across Bull and Bear Markets
This 'Market Crash at the Event' once again verifies the core law of the crypto market: a single event can't withstand macro tidal waves; short-term sentiment will eventually return to value anchor points. As the neon lights of Tokyo and Hong Kong dim, the sober treasure hunters are already selecting the next Bitcoin from the ruins.
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