The bulls and bears are arm wrestling at the $110,000 mark; the outcome of this tug-of-war is just a thought away.
Bitcoin's current position is really awkward — it's just stuck at the corner of $112,000. It's like being backed into a corner in a fight; taking a step back will lead to a fall.
Currently, the price is fluctuating between $111,000 and $113,000, and today it has already briefly fallen below $112,000. This position is critical because there lies the key support level at $110,000, and if it breaks, it may slide directly to lower levels.
01 Bullish and bearish standoff, deadlock difficult to break.
Now both bulls and bears are like two strong men arm wrestling, shaking hands back and forth, but neither can completely push the other down.
From the market perspective, BTC is currently in a period of fluctuating adjustment, with prices oscillating between key support and resistance levels. There is pressure from $113,400 above and support from $110,000 below.
This situation is like two people pushing against each other; whoever lets go first loses. BTC needs to stabilize above $113,400 to relieve short-term downward pressure. Otherwise, it may have to retest support below $110,000.
02 Technical signals are conflicting, direction is unclear.
Currently, the technical aspect is also quite contradictory — on one hand, the candlestick shows signs of a bullish engulfing pattern, with strong support around $108,650.
On the other hand, the moving average system shows a bearish arrangement, while trading volume has significantly shrunk, indicating a divergence between price and volume. It's like stepping on the gas pedal of a car but not accelerating, indicating a lack of power.
MACD shows a dead cross below the waterline, bearish strength has weakened, but the overall trend remains downward; RSI reading is 45.6, not entering overbought or oversold territory, with market sentiment leaning neutral.
03 Shrinking trading volume, market sentiment is cautious.
Recently, the shrinking trading volume is the most troublesome. This indicates that both buyers and sellers are waiting and no one is entering the market with large amounts.
This 'shrinking volatility' is like a crowd watching a spectacle but not taking action. A sudden increase in volume (whether up or down) is necessary to break the deadlock. Currently, market sentiment is very cautious, and overall, there is no clear direction; we need to wait for a breakout signal.
04 The news factors are complex, with mixed bullish and bearish sentiments.
Today, the news is also a mix of bullish and bearish factors. In the options market, there are up to $13.8 billion in Bitcoin options expiring on August 29. The 'maximum pain point' for Bitcoin is around $116,000.
In terms of capital flow, Bitcoin ETF has seen four consecutive days of net inflows, reaching +$179 million yesterday. However, there are signs that a large amount of capital is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, driving up ETH prices but also diverting funds away from Bitcoin.
In terms of macro policy, the US Q2 GDP revision exceeded expectations, and Fed Governor Waller supports a 25bp rate cut in September, providing macro-level benefits to the market. However, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have cooled, prompting investors to reassess the value of risk assets.
Tonight at 20:30, the US July Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year will be released, which is the inflation indicator of greatest concern to the Federal Reserve. The expected value is 2.90%. If it exceeds expectations, it may cause volatility.
If you want to delve deep into the crypto space but can't find a direction, and want to quickly get started and understand information gaps, click on my avatar to follow me for first-hand information and in-depth analysis! #比特币巨鲸换仓以太坊 Follow President Fuqi, the Fuqi team is dedicated to serving ambitious mavericks! Follow President Fuqi to navigate the market through challenges.
