At the macro level, the latest data from CME 'Fed Watch' shows that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Specifically, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is only 17.2%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is as high as 82.8%. Entering October, the market expects a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 55.5%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut reaches 34.5%, with almost no possibility of continuing to maintain the interest rate.
At the corporate level, France's Sequans Communications (NYSE: SQNS) announced a maximum $200 million ATM equity issuance plan. This funding will mainly be used for the initial phase of a Bitcoin reserve strategy, demonstrating that traditional tech companies are also accelerating their allocation of digital assets.
Strategy completed a Bitcoin increase of $356.9 million last week, purchasing a total of 3,081 BTC at an average price of $115,829. As of August 24, the company has accumulated a total of 632,457 Bitcoins, with a total investment of approximately $46.5 billion and an average holding cost of $73,527. So far this year, its Bitcoin yield has reached 25.4%. Most of these acquisition funds came from equity ATM financing channels.
Another company worth noting is Bitmine. As of August 24, the company has a total cryptocurrency and cash holding of over $8.82 billion, including 1,713,899 ETH, 192 BTC, and $562 million in cash. In just the past week, its assets increased by $2.2 billion, with approximately 190,500 new ETH added, indicating that its expansion speed has significantly accelerated.
On the other hand, the U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on the Canary spot PENGU ETF and the Grayscale Cardano ETF, continuing a cautious attitude from regulators.
On-chain data shows a recent increase in market turnover, especially as players who bought at low levels in the short term became the main sellers in this round of adjustment. Long-term holders have shown a calm reaction to the decline.
URPD data shows that 1.575 million Bitcoins are accumulated in the $100,500-$107,000 range; 1.551 million Bitcoins are accumulated in the $93,500-$98,500 range.
Overall, Bitcoin entered an adjustment phase after reaching a high of $120,000 in July-August, but large funds did not panic sell. Bitcoin currently has strong support in the $110,800-$112,000 range. Data shows that profits realized by large holders are less than $1 billion, far below the levels seen before the 2021 bear market. Combining chip structure and institutional behavior, it is judged that the market is likely in a phase of adjustment, and it is still too early to talk about a 'bear market'.
