From a data perspective, the Bitcoin market is currently undergoing a covert battle for funds. Since July 10, after breaking through the previous high, the Bitcoin balance on Binance has shown a significant turning point, shifting from a long-term declining trend to sustained growth. As of yesterday, the increase has reached 40,939 BTC. However, from the perspective of the total balance across all exchanges, there has not been a significant increase, which indicates that other platforms, particularly exchanges like Coinbase, may be playing a hedging role.
(Figure 1)
This set of data indicates that the current potential selling pressure is mainly concentrated on the Binance side, while the demand from American players remains a core support for the market.
Further breakdown reveals that since Bitcoin peaked and fell back on August 13, the mainstream stablecoin balances (USDT+USDC) on the Binance platform have continued to rise, even surpassing the rebound phase from June 10 to June 22—during which BTC also touched the short-term holder cost price (STH-RP).
(Figure 2)
It is noteworthy that if we focus on single transactions exceeding $10 million on Binance, we can see that from August 13 to August 26, the whale group’s BTC operations remain primarily focused on transfers out. This means that although the overall balance is increasing, the attitudes of the super large holders have not shown panic selling due to the market correction, but rather remain rational.
(Figure 3)
Looking back at the last time the STH-RP was touched, the increase in stablecoin balance was relatively small, but the BTC balance was declining, followed by a rapid price rebound. This time, however, the situation is different: on one hand, buying pressure potential has increased, while on the other hand, selling pressure is also building up, making the game between funds more complex and the market dynamics potentially more uncertain than the last time.
