The market signals at the opening on Monday have clearly outlined the 'macro + micro' script of the cryptocurrency world — the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.17%, the S&P fell slightly by 0.15%, gold dipped by 0.05%, while in the cryptocurrency market, BTC fell by 1.8%, and ETH fell by 6.8%, with all the fluctuations behind them being due to 'big moves.'
First, let's look at the most concerning Federal Reserve: Collins bluntly stated, 'The labor market is declining; we can't wait for all uncertainties to disappear before discussing rate cuts.' Musalem was even more direct — 'How good the next employment report is will directly determine whether to cut rates or not.' Now BNP Paribas and Barclays have both decided: 25 basis points cut in September and December. Even former Deputy Director Richard Clarida has loosened his stance, saying 'the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut rates soon,' while only Trump is anxious, saying 'Powell should have cut rates a year ago; now it’s too late.'
But the most exciting thing is not the expectations of rate cuts, but the 'exciting operations' of the whales — lookonchain confirmed: a whale holding over 100,000 BTC directly sold 22,769 BTC (worth about $2.59 billion) and immediately bought 472,900 ETH! Even more astonishing, there are two ancient whales that staked the ETH they just exchanged for BTC in recent days, staking a total of 275,500 ETH (worth $1.3 billion).
I thought ETH could surge with the whales buying the dip, but what happened? The whales’ aggressive selling of BTC completely crashed the whole market — just last weekend, ETH had just touched a new high of $4,900, and in the blink of an eye, it followed the general decline, with fans in the group asking, 'Should we cut losses on the ETH we just chased?'
Let's take a look at solid market data, don’t be fooled by short-term fluctuations:
BlackRock's ETH ETF holdings have reached 3.5412 million, with a market value of $15 billion, rising 50% in one month; the total scale of ETH spot ETFs in the U.S. has broken $30 billion for the first time, accounting for 5.36% of ETH's circulating supply, and institutions are still quietly buying;
BTC is a bit cold; last week, $1.178 billion flowed out of the U.S. spot ETF, but Strategy is still increasing its holdings against the trend — buying 3.569 billion for 3,081 BTC;
More importantly, BTC's market share: it fell 2.52% in a week to 57.9%, the lowest since January this year! The total market value excluding BTC increased by 2.64%, which is clearly a rotation in the bull market — just like the last bull market, moving from BTC to ETH and other mainstream coins.
David Bailey, the CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, said it bluntly: 'There will be no bear market in the next few years, U.S. institutions have just entered the market, and they haven't even reached 0.01% of the total market size.' Jack Yi from LD Capital added, 'During the interest rate cut cycle, ETH has consistently outperformed BTC. Now ETH/BTC is only 0.04, which is still half of the 0.08 it was in 2021, theoretically there is still room.'
But don’t just listen to the good news; the risks must be clearly stated: whales can pull up the market but can also crash it. This time, selling BTC has taught everyone a lesson; and regarding the Federal Reserve, even if there is a rate cut in September, Powell has said 'there will not be drastic cuts.' Whether there will be cuts in October and December depends on employment data. Historical data shows 'after a 2% rate cut, the S&P rises 13.9% over 12 months,' but the cryptocurrency market is more sensitive than the stock market, and a rate cut does not guarantee a stable rise; high leverage must still be controlled.
The current situation in the cryptocurrency market is very clear: macroeconomic rate cuts provide a floor, and the bull market is basically taking shape; rotation is starting in the market, and mainstream coins like ETH have just reached new highs; the actions of whales are more real than any analysis — they are reallocating their portfolios, not playing around. Next, we need to see if the three rounds of rate cuts in September, October, and December can be caught, and whether your BTC/ETH can withstand the whales' 'sudden moves.'
