One, Trend Structure: Short-term bears 'dominate fiercely,' with mid-term rebound 🌱 expectations hidden

Overall framework:

The long road of decline 📉 (left side red and green K-lines 'entangled' going down), after finally forming a bottom, a super long green candlestick 🚀 (like a rocket launch, a symbolic 'breakthrough + reversal' candlestick) quickly surged and broke through the middle red horizontal resistance line, peaking at 4957.67 🌄. But! After the breakthrough, it didn’t 'soar to the sky' but entered a high-level fluctuation 🌀 → turning downwards ⬇️ phase, and now the price is sliding down along the short-term downward trend line, having already broken below the middle red resistance level (support turned resistance, the subsequent rebound depends on whether it can 'regain' this level 🏰).

Cycle trend nesting:

From a daily perspective, in the short term (the past few weeks) the bearish trend is 'dominating the screen,' with the red candlestick bodies being 'chubby,' and the downtrend slope being 'very steep' ⛰️, releasing bearish strength 'bang bang'; in the medium term (starting from the big bullish candlestick), the 'basis for rebound' established by the previous big bullish candlestick is still there. If it can 'steadily hold' and stop falling, there is potential for a 'turnaround' 🌊 rebound relying on the previous bottom (combined with lower cycle signals to 'verify').

Two, Key Price Level Breakdown: A 'battlefield' for bulls and bears

Key resistance above:

4957.67 previous high 🏔️: Recently the peak of rising 'sentiment,' the subsequent rebound must 'break through' this to be considered 'solid proof' that the bulls have regained control; if it cannot break through, it is a 'false breakout,' and the bears will continue to 'create mischief.' The red horizontal line in the middle (original support turned resistance 🚦): the price has already 'thudded' below it, and if it rebounds to 'hit a wall,' the bearish pressure will be directly 'maxed out,' and the short-term 'watershed' for bulls and bears is this!

Key support below:

Previous bottoming range 🏠 (the fluctuation area before the super long bullish candlestick starts): a mid-term 'defensive baseline' for bulls! If the price falls back into this range and can 'form a long lower shadow, morning star ✨ type reversal pattern,' the mid-term rebound probability will 'increase'; extreme support (not shown in the chart, just a guess 🧐): if the bears 'act unreasonably' and drop unexpectedly, we need to look at historical major bottoms or key psychological price levels, but for now, focus on the support of the previous bottoming area.

Three, K-line Patterns: Bears 'causing a ruckus,' waiting for stabilization signals 📶

Downward segment K-line:
After high-level fluctuations, a series of long red candlesticks 🥵 has 'accelerated downward' (candlesticks getting longer and the slope becoming 'steep as a cliff'), clearly indicating a 'concentrated outbreak' of bearish strength, with market 'panic selling' weighing heavily;
If a small volume red candlestick or doji star 🔯 appears at the end of the downturn, or if it forms a 'double bottom 👯' pattern with the previous bottom, it may indicate that the 'stop loss signal light' is on.

Key K-line Retrospective:
That super long green candlestick 🚀 (definitely a 'bullish strong heart needle'), at that time the funds were 'crazy buying' and broke through the resistance. Although it weakened later, it left a 'bullish memory.' When the price falls to key support, it will attract 'bottom-fishing funds' and serve as a 'sentiment anchor ⚓' for a potential mid-term rebound!

Four, Volume Logic (Invisible Key, use your imagination 🧠)

Volume increase:
When the super long candlestick starts, if the trading volume **'bang bang' expands 📊**, it indicates real money is entering, breaking through with high 'value'; if the subsequent high-level fluctuations see **'slowly shrinking'** volume, it reflects 'weakness' in the bullish trend, setting a 'trap' for a downturn.

Downward volume:
If the current downward segment continues to see volume **'increasing'**, it indicates a 'volume-downward → panic selling frenzy,' and it's hard to expect a stop in the short term! If the volume **'gradually decreases'**, it indicates that the bears are 'running out of strength,' and the probability of stabilization is 'increasing' (volume-downward → the downtrend may be nearing its end).

Five, Long and Short Game and Market Forecast 🎭

Current stage:
Bears are taking advantage of 'failed breakout + selling pressure,' dominating the market in the short term, with prices sliding down along the downtrend. Market sentiment is 'panicking,' retail investors are 'stopping losses and exiting,' and some funds are waiting for opportunities to 'bottom fish' at key support.

Two market forecasts:

Bear continuation ☠️: If it breaks below the previous bottoming range support, without clear stabilization signals (like 'increased volume downward, continuous bearish candlesticks'), the price may 'explore the bottom all the way,' starting a new round of daily level downward 'waves'; Bull counterattack 💪: If it 'steadily holds' in the bottoming range (forms reversal candlesticks, with volume 'cooperating'), funds will use the 'memory of the previous big bullish candlestick' to counterattack, needing to reclaim the middle red resistance level 'to verify,' and at that time there is hope to regain mid-term rebounds and challenge the previous high of 4957.67 🌄!

Six, Operational Suggestions (Technical Inference, Don't Follow Blindly 💡)

Short-term bears 🧑‍🎤: For those already in, hold to the key support level (previous bottoming range) and watch closely for stop-loss signals; if it breaks down 'accelerating downward,' take profits 'in batches' and 'run'; for those not in the market, don’t 'chase shorts,' beware of 'oversold rebounds' being 'hit'! Mid-term bulls 🧑‍🚀: Patiently wait for 'stabilization signals' in the bottoming range (daily closes with bullish candlesticks 🌞, increased volume 📊, reversal patterns), lightly try 'testing the waters,' and see if the rebound can break through the middle resistance level; if it breaks, 'add positions and charge,' otherwise 'take profits in time' and withdraw~
@区块橙哥 Lastly, Orange wants to say that whether going long or short, always set stop losses strictly. If you incur losses, don't let temporary losses affect your emotions!#美联储降息预期 #比特币远古巨鲸持续出清