How to seize the TON 'squat jump' before the night? Hidden golden pit below $3.17!

Summary in one sentence: TON is reducing volume below the 3.37 value anchor, with contract positions declining for seven consecutive days without setting a new low, resembling a spring compressed to the bottom—only a strong bullish candle is needed to confirm the reversal.

Key interval structure

• Value anchor (POC): 3.377, yesterday's maximum transaction 42.6M, current price is 6% lower, in a mildly undervalued area.

• High volume area (HVN): 3.34-3.44 continuous ten levels, each level's transaction >30M, is the primary resistance zone for bulls to counterattack.

• Low volume gap (LVN): 3.09-3.11, 3.54-3.59, the former is a 'bear trap', and the latter is a 'bull platform'.

• 70% transaction volume coverage area: 3.20-3.50, current price 3.165 is close to the lower edge, RSI 41, mildly oversold.

Momentum validation

• Up Volume below POC accounts for 45%, still under bear control, but Up Volume at 3.09-3.11 LVN dropped to 0%, indicating the selling momentum is exhausted.

• Contract OI -7.64% vs price -7.64%, synchronized reduction, no panic increase in positions, main force may have locked positions.

Auxiliary judgment

• Bollinger Bands 1h lower edge 3.133, MA200 3.254, price is close to the lower edge and deviates from MA200 by -2.7%, short-term deviation is too large.

• The far end sell wall is stacked at 6.95-8.0, while the near end buy wall at 2.81-3.0 is thick, limiting short-term downward space.

Market cycle

• 2-week VPVR presents an 'inverted triangle', 3.2-3.5 is a dense transaction area, below 3.0 is a vacuum; combined with the continuous decline in OI, it is judged as the 'chip redistribution' stage at the end of the fluctuation.

Trading strategy

Aggressive: Go long if there's a pullback to the LVN in the 3.12-3.15 range and a Pin Bar appears, stop loss at 3.08 (below HVN 3.09), target 3.34/3.44, risk-reward ratio ≈ 4.4.

Conservative: Wait for a breakout with volume above 3.20 (VAL) and a steady position for 30 minutes, enter on a pullback to 3.19-3.20, stop loss at 3.17, target 3.37 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈ 6.8.

Cautious: After breaking above 3.44 (HVN), go long on a pullback to 3.42-3.43, stop loss at 3.39, target 3.54, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.7.

Risk warning

If the 1h close falls below 3.08 or contract OI suddenly increases >5%, the strategy is invalidated, and reverse to short until 2.81.

LP market-making suggestion

It is recommended to dual-coin market-making in the 3.20-3.37 range, with a width of 5.3%, covering 70% of transactions; lower edge close to VAL, upper edge close to POC, balancing capital utilization rate and drawdown risk.

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