Last night, ETH was dumped by a whale, and the price dropped to the lower edge of the Bollinger Bands. The holding cost lost sync with MA200, short-term funds fled in panic, but buy orders quietly formed an 'invisible bottom' — seemingly desolate, yet undercurrents are stirring.
【Key Interval Structure】
1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC=4295.8, 24h trading volume 2.77 million ETH, a crucial battle point for bulls and bears.
2. High Volume Node (HVN):
• 4277.5 (2.35 million ETH)——First support of the day; losing it will quickly slide to 4204.
• 4626.3 (2.36 million ETH)——First resistance for rebounds; a breakthrough with volume is needed to reverse the downward trend.
3. Low Volume Node (LVN):
• 3745.1~3763.4——If the waterfall continues, this area has no support, very likely to crash to 3708.
• Above 4956.8——If bulls want a V-shaped reversal, they must first fill this 'vacuum zone' with volume.
4. 70% Value Zone: 4204~4773, current price is close to the lower edge, short-term entering technical oversold.
【Kinetic Validation】
• POC area UpVol accounts for 58.7%, buying slightly superior, but insufficient strength;
• Recent HVN at 4277.5 has only 51.4% UpVol, bulls and bears are in a stalemate;
• If the 15-minute level shows >60% UpVol and volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 20 candles at 4270~4280, it is considered a short-term bullish signal.
【Auxiliary Indicator】
• MA200=4459, deviation -1.94%, mid-term bearish dominance;
• The lower edge of the Bollinger Bands at 4328 coincides with LVN at 4305, forming dual insurance support;
• Contract positions decreased by 6.27% in 24 hours, funding rate slightly negative, long positions continue to reduce, selling pressure is easing.
【Market Cycle】
In a mid-term upward trend, the daily level is in the C segment of a correction, short-term sentiment is extremely fearful, but the weekly still holds EMA21, defined as 'bull market sharp drop' rather than bear market reversal.
【Trading Strategy】
1. Aggressive: Buy 1/3 position in the range of 4372~4380, stop loss at 4270 (below the HVN edge), first target 4450, second target 4626, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.1.
2. Conservative: Wait for a pullback to 4270~4280, look for a strong bullish engulfing before re-entering, stop loss at 4240, target 4400, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8.
3. Conservative: If it breaks below 4270 and DownVol > 55%, reverse and go short, stop loss at 4320, target 4150, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4.
【Risk Warning】
• If 4270 is lost with volume, the strategy fails;
• Macro black swan or flash crash in US stocks will expand the decline to below 4000.
【LP Market Making Suggestions】
It is recommended to set up dual currency market making in the range of 4270~4450, with a range width of ≈4%:
• The lower boundary at 4270 coincides with HVN, strong support;
• The upper boundary 4450 is the MA200 retest point, selling pressure is concentrated;
• Funding rate is slightly negative, can earn additional short funding fees.
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