【NOT 0.001837】"Oversold Rebound" or "Fake Move"? Understand the 48h Lifeline in One Article!
Quick Overview
NOT has been consolidating in the range of 0.0018-0.0022 for 20 days, heavy selling pressure above the POC 0.00192, but there's an LVN gap at 0.00172-0.00176 with a net buy ratio of 1.85 times, short-term may use the gap for a "fake breakout" to entice buyers, then revert back to the value area.
Key Interval Structure
1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC 0.00192 (Trading Volume 7.07 Billion), above which Down Volume accounts for 66%, indicating bearish control.
2. High Trading Volume Buffer Zone:
• HVN1 0.00188-0.00190 (Up 42%)
• HVN2 0.00182-0.00184 (Up 54%)
Prices falling back to these two zones are likely to rebound.
3. Low Trading Volume Gap:
• LVN1 0.00172-0.00176 (Trading Volume < 1 Billion, Down 100%)
• LVN2 0.00228-0.00237 (Trading Volume < 1.5 Billion, Up 43%)
Gap areas are easily traversed quickly, suitable for breakout or pullback trading.
4. 70% Trading Volume Coverage Zone: 0.00181-0.00221, current price is near the lower boundary of the range, not overbought.
Momentum Verification
• Up/Down near POC 34:66, bears dominate.
• Recent 1h, 4h contract positions have continued to decline (-0.20%→-0.28%), bulls are reducing positions, but 4h net inflow for spot is +28.7M, providing short-term buying support.
• The 1h lower Bollinger Band at 0.00180 coincides with LVN1, providing support.
Market Cycle
The medium-term down channel remains unchanged (12M contract net outflow -143.8 Billion), short-term entering a "consolidation bottoming" phase, lacking trend continuity, suitable for range trading.
Trading Strategy (Short-term)
• Aggressive Long Position: Enter when a Pin bar appears at the pullback of LVN1 0.00175±0.00002 with Up Volume > 60%.
• Conservative Long Position: Wait for a return to HVN2 0.00183±0.00001, with a 15m bullish candle volume.
• Stop Loss: 0.00170 (Lower edge of LVN1 -0.5×ATR≈0.00005).
• First Target: HVN1 0.00188 (Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5).
• Second Target: POC 0.00192 (Risk-Reward Ratio 4.0).
• Risk Warning: If it falls below 0.00170, the range shifts downward, and bears continue, immediate stop loss.
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$NOT
