The price is 'stuck' in the high volume area of 0.378 POC, but has left a huge LVN gap at 0.346-0.350. RSI 68 is approaching the overbought edge; bulls are trying to raise the value center from 0.377 to 0.39, but the 24h contract OI is only +0.67%, and the long/short ratio has dropped sharply to 2.10 → chips are loosening, ready for a 'false breakout followed by a true pullback'.
Key interval structure
• Value Anchor: 0.3779 (POC, 58.86 million Vol, Up/Down=54%:46%, long/short balance)
• High Volume Buffer HVN: 0.368-0.370, 0.374-0.376 — price is likely to bounce back when it falls here
• Low Volume Hole LVN: 0.346-0.350, 0.399-0.402 — a quick crossing area, a breakthrough/pullback trading holy land
• 70% Value Area: 0.361-0.393 — current price 0.3728 is in the center, neither overbought nor oversold
• Momentum: 0.368 HVN UpVol 66% dominated by buyers; 0.378 POC nearby UpVol 54%, momentum is weakening
Auxiliary indicators
• Bollinger Bands 1h: price is touching the upper band at 115%, the upper band 0.3717 has been pierced → short-term overheating
• MA200: 0.3728 is roughly coinciding with MA200 → mid-term trend is flattening
• Contract OI 24h +0.67%, but Long/Short Δ-15.9% → bulls are reducing positions, bears are increasing positions, beware of fake bullish signals
Market cycle assessment
In the 'oscillating center moving up' stage: large range 0.346-0.422, small range 0.361-0.393; if it breaks out above 0.393, it confirms a further upgrade of the bulls; losing 0.361 returns to a bearish downtrend.
Trading strategy
1. Short-term pullback long (conservative)
Entry: 0.368-0.370 (upper edge of LVN + lower edge of HVN)
Stop Loss: 0.365 (below HVN 0.366 -0.5×ATR≈0.003)
Target: 0.378 POC / 0.385 upper HVN
Risk-reward ratio: R=0.007 / 0.010 ≈ 1 : 1.4
2. Breakout chase long (aggressive)
Entry: above 0.393 15m close, and UpVol≥60%
Stop Loss: 0.389 (lower edge of LVN)
Target: 0.402 / 0.410
Risk-reward ratio: R=0.004 / 0.017 ≈ 1 : 4.3
3. Failure reversal short
Trigger: 1h close below 0.361
Entry: 0.360
Stop Loss: 0.364
Target: 0.350 LVN
Risk-reward ratio: R=0.004 / 0.010 ≈ 1 : 2.5
Risk Warning
• If the 0.361-0.393 range consolidates with low volume for >6h, the strategy is invalid, remain cautious
• Contract funding rate turns positive and continues to rise, chasing highs may lead to reversal
• Spot continuous net outflow of 738k USDT/24h, beware of bullish retreat
LP Market Making Recommendations
Place bilateral orders in the range of 0.366-0.378, width ≈3%, reason:
• The range includes HVN+POC, dense trading, high order filling frequency
• Volatility 1.2%/4h, fee income can cover impermanent loss
• Stop loss range edges 0.361 & 0.385, risk is controllable
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