The market is once again caught in the tug-of-war between Trump and the Federal Reserve over interest rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has now decreased to 82.2%. On one hand, this is a reflection of Powell's recent speech, and on the other hand, there are concerns about whether the U.S. economy will actually enter a recession. Today, Barclays Bank anticipates that the U.S. economy may be slipping into stagnation, with a 50% chance of recession in the next two years.

They believe that due to concerns about a recession, the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates in September and December. I cannot determine whether Barclays is right or wrong, but at least Barclays' statements have not completely turned U.S. stock investors bearish yet. If U.S. stocks are not in a bearish state for the time being, then Bitcoin (BTC), which is highly correlated with U.S. stocks, should also not perform too poorly for now.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the drop on Monday triggered a lot of investor turnover, especially among recent bottom-fishing investors who have incurred losses and are participating in the turnover the most. In contrast, earlier investors are not reacting much, and although prices have fallen, the reasons for this decline are the same as last week's—concerns about rate cuts in September and a potential recession. Therefore, the support range of $111,000 to $112,000 currently appears to be quite stable.

Personally, I opened a long position at $111,500, and this morning I did not choose to exit at $113,500. Although it might be a bit greedy, I still think this position is relatively stable, unless there is new negative news; otherwise, it should be fine.