1. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September has dropped to 87.3% (from 75% yesterday), while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 12.7%.
2. AnnaEconomist stated, I believe that Jay Powell is not dovish, and over time, people will realize how hawkish this speech is. Powell did one thing today — he gave a masterclass on how to navigate between two pressures (independence and external pressure). ChatGPT, Grok, and our NLP fedspeak model all concluded that Jay Powell's speech had a hawkish tone. My conclusion from Powell's speech today is that the September rate cut still depends on forecast data — CPI and NFP. Indeed, this bias is somewhat in the direction of a rate cut, but I believe that the certainty priced in by the market does not accurately reflect the risks. One can observe Bloomberg's inflation and growth surprise index; please note what has happened since early July.
3. Wang Feng, founder of Blue Harbor Interactive, tweeted that the recent ETH outperformance and BTC consolidation are more about narrative rhythm differences, and the window may be short, making it difficult for investors to adjust their positions. In the medium to long term, both share the same pool of macro funds, the same set of regulatory dividends, and the same market capitalization curve. ETH's alpha should be viewed as a beta amplifier for BTC, rather than a substitute. "2017's ICO and 2020's DeFi both proved that: the hotter ETH gets, the higher the 'safe-haven premium' for BTC, BTC is the anchor, ETH is the lever, and large funds will ultimately flow back to BTC to lock in profits after victory."
4. The founder of OKX stated that they will launch a $100 million X Layer ecosystem fund to support builders worldwide in creating the next wave of on-chain applications.
5. Japan's Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu: We will create a suitable environment for crypto assets.
6. According to Bloomberg, Galaxy, Jump, and Multicoin are seeking to raise $1 billion to purchase SOL.
7. The president of The ETF Store: The institutional barriers to investing in cryptocurrencies are "rapidly" collapsing, with regulation shifting to allow direct investment or ETFs.
8. Du Jun, co-founder of ABCDE, stated on platform X that while Chinese institutions were slow to react to the microstrategy model, they have quickly followed up, currently inviting participation in three 'microstrategy' projects that include 3 ETH and 2 SOL, which are ongoing, with one ETH DAT starting at a scale of 300,000 tokens.
9. Smokey, co-founder of Berachain, stated on social media that larger-scale airdrops mean more potential sellers without cost basis, and many large trading teams in the Asia-Pacific region often target tokens with airdrops for short-selling operations. Moreover, airdrop tokens are easily manipulated in the market, with most flowing into the hands of insiders. ICOs and public offerings will make a large-scale return. For most teams in the future, the smartest practice is to conduct very few airdrops (1-2%) while conducting public sales (perhaps accounting for 5-10%).
10. According to Reuters, Bank of America is pushing for changes to new stablecoin regulatory rules, fearing that these rules could trigger a $trillion outflow of funds, highlighting the increasingly fierce competition between Wall Street and the cryptocurrency industry. Last week, banking lobbying groups, including the American Bankers Association (ABA), the Bank Policy Institute (BPI), and the Consumer Bankers Association (CBA), warned legislators that there are "loopholes" in the regulations that could allow some crypto trading platforms to indirectly pay interest to stablecoin holders. The Genius Act is a law passed by the U.S. Congress in July aimed at regulating the $288 billion stablecoin market, which prohibits issuers from paying "returns" or interest to clients. Under the new rules, banks can issue their own stablecoins but cannot pay any interest.
