1. Today's CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 81.9%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in October is 8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 46.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 45.5%.
2. In Q2 2025, Web3 financing exhibited the core characteristics of "high capital concentration and belief-driven investment": total financing surged to $9.6 billion (the second-highest in history), but the number of transactions plummeted to 306. Institutional funds are focusing large strategic bets on key infrastructure areas (such as Rollup and validator networks), as the market completely moves away from broad-based speculation to a high-threshold construction logic.
3. According to a statement from the Wormhole Foundation, LayerZero proposed to acquire Stargate for approximately $110 million in ZRO, but Wormhole believes that this offer undervalues Stargate’s assets and growth. Stargate's bridging volume reached $4 billion in July, a tenfold year-on-year increase, with a TVL of $345 million and an expected annual revenue of $2 million. Wormhole plans to submit a higher offer and requests to pause the current Snapshot vote for 5 business days to refine the bidding process and protect the interests of STG holders.
4. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes mentioned "stablecoins" eight times, noting that many participants discussed recent and future developments related to payment stablecoins and their potential impact on the financial system. These participants indicated that with the recent passage of the (GENIUS Act) (U.S. Stablecoin Innovation and Financial Inclusion Act), the use of payment stablecoins may increase.
5. The Federal Reserve's spokesperson Nick Timiraos recently wrote: The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that a few officials hinted they might join the rate-cutting camp in September.
6. LD Capital founder Yi Lihua posted on social media, stating, "August has always been a quiet trading season due to the U.S. financial holiday, and historically, cryptocurrency performance has been poor. With the arrival of Hawk Powell's speech and the drop in U.S. stocks, ETH's performance has been outstanding, providing everyone with the best time and area to bottom-fish. With the time to a 25 basis point rate cut in September drawing near, unless there is a major issue with U.S. stocks, it will be a continuous bull market trend with trading opportunities. The macro focus is on U.S. stock risks, cryptocurrency policies, Trump vs. the Federal Reserve, and stablecoins, while the industry is looking at the next ETF, DeFi legislation, coin-stock projects, etc.
7. Bloomberg: A recent survey by Bank of America of fund managers showed that 91% of them believe U.S. stocks are too expensive. But don't just listen to what fund managers say; watch what they do, because they are fully invested. If people buy something they think is overvalued, it can also pose significant risks.
8. Opinion: PGIM economists point out that inflation is stubborn, predicting that Powell will signal gradual rate cuts, with a total cumulative reduction of only 100 basis points by 2025, below market expectations. T. Rowe Price economists emphasize that Powell's speech may highlight policy flexibility, with the September meeting decision fully dependent on the upcoming August employment and CPI data—sharp employment declines could trigger a 50 basis point cut, while inflation rebounds would support maintaining the status quo.
9. According to a report by Reuters, wealthy Asian families and family offices are increasing their investments in cryptocurrencies, primarily driven by bullish expectations for digital assets, increased mainstream acceptance, and positive regulatory developments in key markets. Wealth management professionals indicated that the number of inquiries they received has significantly increased, trading volumes on cryptocurrency trading platforms have surged, and demand for cryptocurrency funds is strong, as high-net-worth Asian investors seek greater exposure. Swiss investment bank UBS stated that some overseas Chinese family offices plan to increase their cryptocurrency exposure to about 5% of their portfolios.
