At 3 AM yesterday, the crypto market experienced a sudden fluctuation: Bitcoin plunged sharply without warning from 4850 points, dropping over 200 points, with the entire network instantly evaporating $628 million and 130,000 investors facing liquidation. This fluctuation was not a technical adjustment, but rather a clear operation of 'ancient whales' rebalancing, with details pointing to a shift in market dynamics.
1. Liquidation Scene: Long positions are the 'disaster area', with single losses exceeding ten million
In this liquidation, long positions bore the brunt: the total liquidation amount for long positions across the network reached $459 million, while short positions only amounted to $168 million, with Bitcoin long position liquidations accounting for over 80%, reaching $380 million. On-chain data shows that a certain address triggered a chain stop-loss due to the whale's dumping, with a single liquidation amount as high as $12.48 million.
2. Whale Movements: 19,600 BTC exchanged for ETH, $2.2 billion in funds 'transfused' into Ethereum
The core driving force behind this market movement is an 'ancient whale' who entered in 2011: they exchanged all of their 19,663 Bitcoin (equivalent to $2.22 billion at current prices) for 455,672 Ethereum, currently holding 176,616 ETH (about $832 million) on-chain, and have cleared all BTC on the HyperLiquid platform, fully positioning for ETH.
Notably, this whale's BTC cost is nearly zero (purchased in 2011 at about $10/coin), and is currently selling at $110,000/coin, effectively cashing out BTC and directing funds into ETH, directly increasing the selling pressure on Bitcoin.
3. ETH sets a historical high: driven by both funds and ecosystem
Affected by this, Ethereum broke through $4950 yesterday, setting a new historical high, with core support coming from two points:
Funding Side: The whale's $2.2 billion reallocation of funds combined with the entry of institutions like Fidelity and BlackRock, with funds continuously gathering towards ETH;
Ecosystem: DeFi locked value increased by 15% in a week, NFT floor prices are recovering, ETH staking annualized remains stable at 4%, ecosystem's ability to generate revenue supports capital retention.
4. Whale Logic: Betting on ETH as the main character in the next cycle
The whale's reallocation strategy is clear: Bitcoin is positioned as 'digital gold', stable but with slower growth; Ethereum, as 'digital oil', can sustainably capture dividends relying on DeFi, NFTs, etc., while avoiding the selling pressure risk of BTC, essentially betting on ETH becoming the core of the next market.
5. Subsequent Market Prediction: ETH not to chase highs, BTC awaits to digest selling pressure
In the next 3 months, market focus will be on ETH, but caution is needed for correction risks after rapid rises. Above $4950, it is not recommended to blindly go all in; waiting for a pullback to the $4600-$4700 range for further observation is advisable. Although Bitcoin is impacted, the critical support at $4668 remains unbroken, and after the whale selling pressure is digested (expected in 2-3 trading days), there may be opportunities for a rebound.
The next issue will further analyze: how should ordinary investors respond to this reallocation wave—should they follow and allocate to ETH, or wait for an opportunity to bottom out BTC?
