SOL stuck at $199! After falling 3.83%, it has narrowed down to the $199-214 range. $198 is holding to push towards $210, but if it can't hold, will there be a deeper correction? This wave of fluctuation hides opportunities!
1. Breaking the fluctuation dilemma: Bottoming out or preparing to fall?
After the drop from $214 to $199, the fluctuation seems calm but actually presents two possibilities:
Bottoming out and gathering strength (currently more likely)
There is a buy order of 4.2 million U at $198-199, suggesting institutions are accumulating;
Reduced volume retracement (24h trading volume dropped from 220 million U to 180 million U), selling pressure is decreasing;
Standing above the 50-day moving average ($197), RSI is neutral, and MACD hasn't crossed, similar to the bottoming trend in 2023, $199 may be a short-term bottom, and if $198 holds, it could push to $204-210.
Preparing for a fall (no signals yet)
Danger Signal 1: Breaking below $198 with increased volume (hourly trading volume exceeds 3 million SOL);
Danger Signal 2: No volume when rebounding to $202-204 (hourly trading volume below 1.5 million SOL), currently neither has appeared.
2. SOL's confidence at $199: Strong ecological support
DeFi + NFT + DApp enthusiasm remains
DeFi locked value at $14.8 billion, leading DEX daily trading volume exceeds $500 million;
NFT projects still have heat, DApp daily active wallets average 620,000, the ecosystem is not cooling down.
Institutions are increasing holdings at $198-200
Whale addresses increased their holdings by 120,000 SOL (about $23.76 million) in 24h, optimistic about the $198 support.
3. Technical aspects contain hope: a rebound if $198 holds
Price is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, mid-term trend is not broken;
RSI at 48 (neutral zone), MACD hasn't turned bearish, selling pressure will diminish, historically similar trends have rebounded.
4. Key levels determine direction: $198 support vs $204 resistance
Hold $198: First aim for $204, once broken, look for $210-220;
If it breaks below $198: Short-term may drop to $195 (strong support), presenting a better buying opportunity.
5. Different strategies for different groups
Already holding (above $200): Set a stop loss at $197, don't cut losses, don't add positions, and watch less;
Empty position and waiting: Wait for "$198 holds + increased volume rebound above $200" or "increased volume breaking $204 and retracing to $202" before entering;
Want to bottom fish: Use 10% of the position to test around $198-199, set a stop loss at $196, take profits at $2-3 and reduce position, don't be greedy.
Confused about trading and want to gain knowledge and cutting-edge information in the crypto circle? Click on the profile picture to follow Lao Ma, don’t get lost!
