I directly blew my short position, losing 20,000 USD! These bulls are too ruthless! I just sold ETH at 4350, thinking of waiting for a pullback, and then it broke 4600 directly; I’m almost crying from missing out!
This morning, the backend was full of messages like 'angry and regretful' — just when the market was still debating 'whether Bitcoin can stabilize at 110,000,' ETH suddenly threw out a 'bomb': Within one hour on August 27th, it surged by 200 USD, breaking the key level of 4600 USD, with short positions liquidating over 500 million USD, directly pushing the topic of the '4680 USD short position graveyard' to the trending searches.
Don’t just look at the bullish frenzy; today let’s break down the 'truth behind ETH's surge, whether 4680 USD can break, and whether it's the right time to enter' to help you understand if this market wave is 'a fleeting moment' or 'the starting point of 5000 USD.'
First, let’s look at the details of the early morning surge: it’s not a coincidence! Technical breakout + news catalyst, dual engines ignited.
Many people feel that 'ETH is rising for no reason,' but after reviewing the K-line and news, it turns out this is a 'long-planned' explosion:
The technical indicators have already given signals: upward channel + bullish engulfing, with the main force clearly defending the price.
Open the 1-hour K-line of ETH; the trend over the past week resembles a 'textbook bullish pattern':
The price is steadily rising along the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the lower track (4310 USD) has been tested three times without breaking; every time it drops to this level, there are funds to buy, indicating that the main force is defending the price.
Yesterday afternoon's 'big bullish candle' was even more crucial: it completely covered the previous three bearish candles, and the trading volume soared from 2 billion USD to 3.5 billion USD, a typical 'bullish engulfing' signal — experienced players all understand this is a sign of 'a big rise' coming, but unfortunately, many people didn’t catch on and were still cutting losses.
Indicators are also gaining strength: The MACD histogram has turned positive, the DIF line is about to cross the 0 axis, and the RSI low points are gradually rising (from 40 to 55), like 'a spring compressed to the tightest point, ready to bounce.'
The news is even more intense: institutions are buying in bulk + technological upgrades, directly cutting off the shorts' path.
The early morning surge was not 'nonsense'; behind it are two major 'ammunition depots' supporting it:
Institutions are frantically accumulating: NASDAQ-listed company SharpLink Gaming has increased its holdings by 10,975 ETH, now holding over 530,000 in total, just like MicroStrategy holding Bitcoin; BlackRock and Fidelity’s ETH ETFs had a net inflow of 450 million USD in one day, with the circulating supply getting lower, leading to a natural price increase.
The Electra upgrade is in effect: After the upgrade on August 24th, ETH's TPS increased from 1500 to 10000, and gas fees decreased by 85% — previously, one transaction cost 50 USD, now it only costs 7.5 USD. Major companies like Deloitte and JP Morgan are starting to migrate projects to ETH's mainnet, the practical value is rising, how could the price not increase?
This morning, a friend from an institution told me: 'We started accumulating ETH last week; after the ETF approval, compliant funds can only buy ETH, this wave of rise has just begun, and 4680 will definitely break.'
Second, 4680 USD: Is it a short position graveyard or a roadblock? Just look at these two signals to understand.
Now everyone is asking 'can 4680 USD break' — this position is a 'dense area of historical trapped positions'; it has failed to break twice in 2021 and 2023, but this time is different; there are two signals indicating 'it can break':
The circulating supply is getting lower and institutions are locking up too aggressively.
On-chain data shows: The amount of ETH staked has reached 27 million, accounting for 22% of the circulating supply, with these coins locked for at least 18 months; adding the 15 million coins held in ETFs, a total of 42 million ETH is locked, equivalent to 'a quarter of the circulating coins are missing from the market.'
Scarcity increases value. When it broke 4600 early yesterday morning, the trading volume was still increasing (4 billion USD), indicating strong buying pressure. The large amount of trapped positions at 4680 is likely to be cleared.
The shorts are already panicking, and the liquidation wave is still ongoing.
The total ETH contract shorts across the network have been liquidated over 500 million USD, and a large holder with 10,000 ETH in short positions was directly forced to close at 4620, losing 20 million USD — short liquidations will 'assist the rise' because exchanges are forced to close short positions, equivalent to 'passive buying pressure,' which can push prices even higher.
But be wary of 'false breakouts': If it rushes to 4680 and the trading volume drops below 2.5 billion USD in one hour (37% less than before), it indicates that buying pressure is insufficient and may pull back to 4500; if the trading volume can maintain above 3.5 billion, after breaking 4680, it will directly rush to 5000 USD.
Third, don’t just look at the surges! Be wary of two risks; otherwise, the money you earned will be given back.
The 'dragging risk' of Bitcoin.
No matter how strong ETH is, it is still correlated with Bitcoin (correlation coefficient 0.7) — if BTC drops below 105,000, even if ETH wants to rise, it will be dragged down. Yesterday a fan said: 'ETH rose to 4600, I didn’t sell, but BTC dropped below 110,000, and ETH fell back to 4570, missing out on 300 USD.'
So keep a close eye on BTC's support level at 108,000; if it breaks, even if ETH makes a profit, you should take some profit first.
The 'trapped position selling pressure' at 4680.
When ETH rose to 4680 in 2021, many people were trapped here; now that they are untrapped, they might 'hurry to sell' — if it breaks 4680 and sell orders suddenly increase (for example, Binance's sell orders rise from 100 million USD to 200 million USD), don’t chase the high; wait for a pullback to 4600 to confirm support before buying.
Fourth, exclusive advice from Ma: How should three types of players operate? Don’t rush in.
Aggressive approach: Try going long lightly at the current price of 4570, stop loss at 4530.
If you're thinking of entering now, first enter a 20% position, set the stop loss at 4530 (the low point of yesterday's consolidation), and aim for 4680 — after breaking it, add another 20%, targeting 5000; if it doesn’t break 4680 and drops, quickly take profit, don’t hold.
Yesterday a fan tried going long at 4550, with a stop loss at 4530, and now he's already made 140 USD per coin. He said: 'Thanks to the stop loss, I wasn't panicking when it pulled back to 4540.'
Conservative approach: Wait for a pullback to 4450, combined with a MACD golden cross.
For those who don’t want to chase the high, wait for a pullback to the 4450-4500 range, and then enter a 30% position when the daily MACD shows a golden cross (DIF line crossing above DEA line) — this position is the 'middle track of the upward channel,' with strong support; even if it drops, it won’t drop too far.
Long-term approach: Stake ETH for passive income + wait for ecological dividends.
Now ETH staking has an annualized return of 4%-6%, and you can also participate in Layer2 airdrops (like the recent Arbitrum project airdrop, where users staking ETH get priority) — one long-time fan staked 100 ETH and earns 2 ETH each month, and has received several airdrops; this is much more stable than short-term trading.
Fifth, to be honest: This wave of ETH's rise is not 'hype.'
In the past, ETH's rise relied on 'bull market sentiment'; this time is different, relying on 'institutional funds + technological upgrades + regulatory benefits' — the Electra upgrade resolved the old issues of 'slow and expensive,' and ETFs allow compliant funds to enter the market; these are 'solid values,' not just shouting orders.
But retail investors shouldn’t be greedy: even if it can reach 5000 USD, don’t go all in, and definitely don’t open high-leverage contracts — among the 500 million USD liquidated yesterday, 90% were players using over 10x leverage; they earn quickly when it rises, but lose even faster when it falls.
I will monitor ETH's trading volume and BTC's trends in real-time in my fan group. If 4680 breaks, I’ll notify everyone immediately; if it pulls back to 4450, I will also remind everyone to add to their positions. If you want to make a profit in this market wave, just follow me — in the crypto world, we earn 'money by understanding trends' and more importantly, 'money by controlling risks.' Don't let the surge cloud your judgment.
Let’s discuss in the comments: Were you shocked by ETH's surge early in the morning? Do you have ETH now? Are you planning to take profit or add to your position?
