This week, the cryptocurrency market will face multiple key events, from China's 600 billion liquidity release to the US core PCE data, each could rewrite the trends of BTC and SOL. Understanding event nodes and capital logic is essential to avoid risks and seize opportunities.
1. China's 600 billion MLF implementation: Liquidity may indirectly flow into the cryptocurrency market, beware of lag effects
On August 26 (Monday), the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation to inject liquidity into the market. Historical data shows that during periods of significant liquidity injection, idle funds often flow into high-risk areas, and cryptocurrency assets tend to benefit:
In 2020, the reserve requirement cut released 1.75 trillion, and BTC rose by 43% that month ($7000→$10,000);
In 2022, the MLF increased by 500 billion, SOL rose by 33% ($90→$120);
In 2023, when the 600 billion MLF was implemented, ETH rose by 17% ($1800→$2100).
Currently, BTC ($113,000) and SOL ($203) are at critical resistance levels. If funds flow in through off-exchange channels, it may push for a breakout. However, note that the effects of liquidity injection can have a lag (5 days in 2020, 3 days in 2022), do not blindly chase highs, wait for trading volume to expand to $20 billion/hour before acting, to avoid 'crashing after the news hits.'
2. US July core PCE data: Next Friday will be crucial, the Federal Reserve's policy barometer
On September 1 (Friday at 20:30), the US July core PCE data will be released (the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator), with a market expectation of 2.9%. The data result will directly affect interest rate cut expectations, thus guiding the direction of cryptocurrency prices:
Above expectations (≥3.0%): Probability of interest rate cuts drops sharply, funds shift to USD and government bonds, BTC may fall below $110,000, and SOL may break $200;
Below expectations (≤2.8%): Interest rate cut expectations rise, risk assets are favored, BTC is expected to surge to $118,000, SOL may break the resistance at $214;
In line with expectations (2.9%): Stalemate between bulls and bears, cryptocurrency prices fluctuate narrowly.
In 2022, a similar scenario occurred: After PCE exceeded expectations to 4.7%, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points, and BTC fell from $30,000 to $17,000 within half a month, while SOL dropped from $120 to $30. Current inflation has not reached the 2% target, positions need to be controlled before data is released to avoid being fully invested.
3. Monday's double data 'appetizer': Germany's IFO + US new home sales, determining direction in the early session
On August 26 (Monday), two data points will first impact global capital flows, potentially delivering a 'shock' to the cryptocurrency market:
9:00 Germany's August IFO business climate index (the European economic barometer):
Data rises (e.g., ≥86.5): European economy rebounds, funds flow into Eurozone stock markets, the cryptocurrency market may be drained;
Data drop (≤85): European economic panic, funds shift to BTC as a safe haven, which is favorable for cryptocurrency prices.
22:00 US July new home sales data (US economic vitality indicator):
Above expectations (e.g., ≥720,000 units): Strong economy, the Federal Reserve may lean hawkish, negative for the cryptocurrency market;
Below expectations (e.g., ≤650,000 units): Economic weakness, interest rate cut expectations rise, favorable for the cryptocurrency market.
In November 2023, there was a case where BTC rose by $2000 ($37,000→$39,000) on the day of a significant drop in Germany's IFO, and SOL rose by $8 ($100→$108) when US new home sales fell short of expectations. On Monday's opening, need to observe data results to determine operational direction.
4. The often-overlooked 'dark line': The UK market is closed to prevent price spikes, and Chinese concept stocks' financial reports determine capital preferences.
The UK market is closed on Monday (August 26): The London Stock Exchange's closure leads to a 30%+ decrease in European market trading volume, reducing liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, making 'price spike events' likely (e.g., a single $100 million order could cause a 5% price fluctuation). In 2023, when the UK market was closed, BTC spiked from $42,000 to $40,500, wiping out retail stop-loss orders. Short-term traders need to widen stop-loss limits (set BTC at $110,000, SOL at $198) to avoid very short-term operations.
Pinduoduo/Haidilao financial reports (within this week, specific time to be announced): As leading players in Chinese consumption, financial reports reflect the warmth or coldness of the consumer market:
Above expectations (e.g., Pinduoduo year-on-year growth ≥60%): Signals of consumer recovery, funds may flow into risk assets (including cryptocurrencies);
Below expectations (e.g., growth ≤40%): Weak consumption panic, funds flee to safe-haven assets, negative for the cryptocurrency market.
Last year, on the day Pinduoduo's Q3 financial report exceeded expectations, ETH rose by $150 ($1500→$1650), and SOL rose by $8 ($80→$88); this year, when Q2 financial reports fell short of expectations, BTC dropped by $5000 ($110,000→$105,000), caution is needed regarding financial report impacts.
5. India's new tariff regulations take effect: The global trade butterfly effect impacts cross-border cryptocurrency ecology
This week, India's new tariff regulations on electronic devices and chemical products officially take effect, which may trigger a chain reaction: increased tariffs → rising trade costs → declining corporate profits → stock market volatility → changes in capital flows. Historical cases show:
In 2022, India imposed a 30% tax on cryptocurrency assets, leading to a 50% drop in Indian cryptocurrency trading volume, with BTC falling from $48,000 to $42,000;
In 2023, India relaxed some tariffs, leading to a global trade recovery, with BTC rising from $25,000 to $38,000.
Although the impact is weaker than PCE and liquidity, attention should be paid to tokens like Matic and Ada, which have layouts in India—the change in tariffs may affect their cross-border payments and NFT ecology, thus influencing prices.
6. This week's layout timeline: Operate according to event nodes, refuse to act blindly
1. Monday (August 26): Waiting for data + preventing price spikes, mainly light positions
9:00 Germany's IFO data: Drop → light position increase in BTC (10% position); Rise → remain in cash and observe;
22:00 US new home sales data: Below expectations → increase SOL (5% position); Above expectations → reduce position by 5%;
Control positions ≤50% throughout the day, BTC stop-loss at $110,000, SOL stop-loss at $198, avoid very short-term trading.
2. Tuesday-Thursday: Observe financial reports + monitor liquidity effects, look for support/resistance
After the financial report release: Above expectations → increase positions in BTC/ETH/SOL (each by 5%); Below expectations → reduce positions by 10%;
Watch the Chinese stock market: A-shares rise over 2% → watch BTC at $115,000, SOL at $214 resistance; A-shares fall → watch BTC at $112,000, SOL at $201 support;
Maintain positions at 50%-60%, keep cash ready for Friday's PCE.
3. Friday (September 1): PCE determines direction, act decisively
Above expectations (≥3.0%): Liquidate 50%, continue to reduce if BTC falls below $110,000 and SOL below $200;
Below expectations (≤2.8%): Increase position by 30%, hold if BTC breaks $118,000 and SOL breaks $214;
In line with expectations (2.9%): Maintain positions and wait for the next signal.
