From a macro perspective, the bull market is definitely not over. Old Biden has a saying: "You can't say it's a bull market only when Bitcoin is rising." Bitcoin often shows a negative correlation with the US dollar index: when the dollar is strong, Bitcoin is weak; when the dollar is weak, Bitcoin is strong.

2017 bull market: The US dollar index fell from 103 to below 90, while Bitcoin rose from $1,000 to nearly $20,000 during the same period.

2020-2021 bull market: After the pandemic, the US dollar index fell from 103 to 90, while Bitcoin rose from over $10,000 to $69,000.

2022 bear market: The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes led the US dollar index to a 20-year high (114), and Bitcoin fell below $20,000.

Strong dollar cycle (Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, global capital flowing back to the US): Emerging markets experience capital outflows, risk assets are pressured, and Bitcoin often weakens.

Weak dollar cycle (Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, dollar depreciation): Global capital seeks yield opportunities, liquidity floods the market, and Bitcoin, gold, and US stocks often strengthen simultaneously.

Currently, the Federal Reserve is in the process of transitioning from tightening to easing, the US dollar index is at a relatively high level but has entered a fluctuating downward range, which is a medium to long-term positive for Bitcoin.#BTC