On Monday, as global markets opened, gold fell, oil fell, U.S. stock futures fell, and Bitcoin plummeted, with almost every corner of the world experiencing declines.

Before the Chinese stock market opens, the narrative in the global market has changed.

First, the market did not continue its winning streak but instead fell (funds are cashing out rather than increasing positions), and the reason is not complicated: profit-taking. After a moment of calm, investors realized that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting suggested 'one interest rate cut' rather than the beginning of a rate cut cycle. A week ago, the market had already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut for September, so the heat began to cool.

Compared Powell's two hints at a rate cut in Jackson Hole, indicating a 'restrained' approach to rate cuts:

* Last year: The time for policy adjustments had come, and the direction forward was clear;

* This year: The risk balance seems to be shifting, and policy adjustments may be needed (the signals are not as clear as last year's meetings).

Powell seems more like he is 'being forced to acknowledge that risks are changing' rather than actively starting a loosening cycle. In other words, he is not looking to flood the market but rather to precisely ease off a bit. The 'sustained interest rate cut cycle' that the market desires may not be realistic unless the upcoming data clearly supports it. If the data is weak, we could even see a scenario of 'cutting rates once and then stopping.' Therefore, the market's optimism in the short term can easily dissipate with a gust of wind.

Additionally, it should be noted that the Federal Reserve has yet to reach a consensus on a rate cut in September; Powell still needs to persuade other Fed officials who oppose the cut. However, if the upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data do not support it, Powell may also find himself hesitating. The most challenging task for a central bank is to seize the right timing during a turning point.

Second, Bitcoin serves as a very good reference; its normal opening over the weekend, combined with the declines over the two trading days, has completely reversed last Friday's gains—this serves as a warning bell for other markets.

Third, this wave of market activity is actually very fragile, completely held hostage by AI and interest rate cut expectations. Powell's speech acts like a shot of adrenaline, but whether it can extend life depends on whether Nvidia can uphold the 'AI myth.' Nvidia will release its quarterly results after the market closes on Wednesday; if the earnings report continues to shine, the market may temporarily ignore high valuations and continue to celebrate. But if it slightly misses expectations, then 'the higher it rises, the harder it falls.'$BTC $ETH

The market now feels like walking a tightrope, with the left hand representing the Federal Reserve's 'restrained interest rate cuts' and the right hand symbolizing Nvidia's 'AI myth.' A slight disturbance on either side could throw the entire market off balance.#币安Alpha上新 #美国初请失业金人数