Bitcoin Magazine CEO: There will not be another Bitcoin bear market in the coming years.
On August 24, Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey posted on social media, 'There will not be another Bitcoin bear market in the coming years. Every sovereign nation, bank, insurance company, corporation, and pension fund will eventually hold Bitcoin. This process has officially begun, and we have not even captured 0.01% of the total market size. Bitcoin's price will rise even higher.'
The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 87.3%.
On August 25, according to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 12.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 87.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 6.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 50.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 42.9%.
Willy Woo: The slow rise of Bitcoin in this cycle is due to selling pressure from ancient whales, and the market needs to digest the tenfold profit chips.
Crypto analyst Willy Woo tweeted, 'Why has Bitcoin's rise this cycle been so slow? The supply of Bitcoin is primarily concentrated in ancient whales, who reached their peak holdings around 2011. At that time, the buying price for Bitcoin was $10 or lower. Now, every time they sell 1 BTC, the market needs over $110,000 in new funds to absorb it. This difference in cost basis, along with the volume they hold and their selling speed, has a profound impact on how much new capital is needed to push prices higher. This can be seen as the growing pains Bitcoin is experiencing until these investors, who have already seen tenfold returns, are fully digested by the market.'
Vitalik: If the market can solve the interest problem, there will be a large number of hedging application scenarios, further driving the growth of transaction volume.
On August 25, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin posted on Warpcast, 'In the debate over the pros and cons of prediction markets, an important point I want to add is that most mainstream prediction markets do not pay interest, making them very unattractive for hedging. Because participating means giving up a guaranteed 4% annual return in dollars. I expect that once this issue is resolved, a large number of hedging application scenarios will emerge, and transaction volume will further increase.'
Analyst: 'ETH breaks $4900 to set a new high, its upward trend is stronger than BTC.'
According to CoinDesk, the price of Ethereum broke $4900 on Sunday night, reaching a new historical high of $4946. Crypto trader Crypto Rover predicts, 'ETH held by exchanges has been decreasing recently. A reduction in exchange holdings could lead to a decrease in supply, thereby pushing prices up.' Another analyst, Miles Deutsher, added, 'BTC has been weak, but ETH has not. While BTC's upward trend has stalled near its peak, ETH is forming strong buying momentum, showing a relatively clear upward trend.' Some analysts warn that weekend breakouts often lead to pullbacks, and a short-term pullback may be expected early this week.
The scale of U.S. Treasuries held by stablecoins has exceeded that of Germany.
On August 25, according to data from Bitwise Asset Management, stablecoins have become important holders of U.S. Treasuries, with a holding size of about $180 billion, surpassing countries like Germany, South Korea, and the UAE.
Bitcoin's market share has fallen below 58%, while the market cap of altcoins has risen by 2.64% in the past week.
On August 25, according to market data, Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) fell by 2.52% in the past week, currently reported at 57.9%. During the same period, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies declined by 1.05%, while the total market cap excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL 2) rose by 2.64%, and the total market cap excluding both Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL 3) increased by 0.59%.
CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates three times in the year.
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank summit aligns with our previous expectations, emphasizing the downside risks in the labor market, continuing the view from the July monetary policy meeting that 'tariff inflation is transitory', laying the groundwork for a rate cut in September. We maintain our previous view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times this year, each by 25bps. Regarding the adjustment of the monetary policy framework, the Federal Reserve has abandoned the average inflation targeting regime, returning to a flexible inflation targeting regime, and modified its wording to emphasize attention to 'bidirectional' labor market risks.
This week's outlook: Powell's dovish stance is set, and the market focuses on the 'paving stones' for rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released dovish signals at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, emphasizing the downside risks to employment and the transient nature of inflation, paving the way for a rate cut in September. The market will focus on key data this week to validate rate cut expectations: a moderate core PCE inflation on Friday would strengthen the outlook for a rate cut, while weak employment data or signs of an economic slowdown would also be seen as supportive signals for easing. Unexpectedly strong data could shake market optimism.
Historical data shows that Ethereum is likely to decline in September after rising in August.
Data shows that since 2016, Ethereum has often declined in September after rising in August, with an average drop of 6.42%. Although ETH rose 25% to $4785 in August this year, and the Federal Reserve's dovish statements and inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs (with a net inflow of $2.79 billion in August) may bring bullish momentum, historical patterns still suggest caution in September. However, after declines in September in 2016 and 2020, ETH rebounded in the following three months. It remains to be seen whether this year can break the seasonal trend.
The Trump family's token WLFI goes online, and rumors about the token distribution cause dramatic price fluctuations.
On August 25, a false proposal regarding the token distribution of Aave and World Liberty Financial (WLFI) triggered panic in the market, causing AAVE's price to plummet by 5% in a single day, with a market cap evaporating by $300 million. WLFI is controversial due to the Trump family's 60% ownership and highly centralized token distribution. Aave's own high leverage risk and institutional exposure have exacerbated market volatility. Meanwhile, in the DeFi space, with the influx of institutional investors, the TVL is close to historical highs, but regulatory and centralization issues have raised industry concerns.
Why Arthur Hayes predicts that Ethereum will soar to $20,000.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Ethereum could soar to $10,000 to $20,000 in this bull market, with the core logic being the expectation that the Trump administration will implement massive quantitative easing. He believes that after breaking the historical high, the market will accelerate, and points out that institutional holdings and inflows into Ethereum ETFs support the upward trend. Hayes has recently continued to increase his holdings in ETH, with over $50 million in related assets in his wallet.
